Stat of the Day, 15th November 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

2.45 Ayr : Sophie Olivia @ 7/2 BOG PU at 4/1 (Always behind, weakened 5 out, pulled up next) 

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

12.40 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Fieldsman @ 7/2 BOG  

…in a 10-runner, Class 6 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Fibresand worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was third here over course and distance just three days ago, but whilst he runs off the same mark today, he does take a drop in class, which could help. His mark is a workable 65, when you consider he has won off 79, 85 & 87 on turf in the past.

He’s trainer David Griffiths’ only runner of the day and David’s horses have gone well here recently, winning 12 of 60 (20% SR) for 17.64pts (+29.4% ROI) in handicaps on this track since the start of 2017, including…

  • males at 10/53 (18.9%) for 19.53pts (+36.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 6/23 (26.1%) for 5.09pts (+22.1%)
  • at odds of Evens to 11/2 : 10/21 (47.6%) for 24.1pts (+114.8%)
  • finished 2nd/3rd LTO : 3/10 (30%) for 3.18pts (+31.8%)
  • and ridden by Tom Marquand : 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.26pts (+171%)

…whilst Class 6 males at evens to 11/2 are 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 17pts (+212.5% ROI)

Fieldsman also pops us as a qualifier on two micros of mine, which I’ll share now, but not dig down into (time is short this morning, I’m at the dentists shortly!), but both are very workable starting points for research…

1) Since 2013 in A/W handicaps over 7f/1m, USA-bred males aged 4 to 11 are 48 from 247 (19.4% SR) for 412.3pts (+166.9% ROI)

2) Whilst since the start of 2014 in Class 5/6 handicaps over 5f to 1m4f here, males aged 2 to 8 who were the clear top weight in their race won 96 of 375 (25.6% SR) for 180.2pts (+48.1% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Fieldsman @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by pretty much everyone at 5.50pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 12.40 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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