Stat of the Day, 16th November 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

12.40 Southwell : Fieldsman @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, ridden and every chance from over 1f out, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by a neck) 

Friday’s pick runs in the…

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG  

…in a 6-runner, Class 2 Fillies Conditions Stakes for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £12291 to the winner… 

Why?

I’m going to keep this relatively (by my standards anyway) short and hopefully very sweet today with a 5 yr old mare who has knocked on the door of late finishing third in each of her last three starts. In her defence, I should add that they were all at Listed Class and today she takes both a drop in class and trip back to her preferred 7f.

All 3 career wins to date are over 7 furlongs within 12-24 days of her last outing (15 days this time) and she has 1 win and 2 places from 3 Class 2 efforts whilst she also has a win and a place from 3 over this very course and distance.

Franny Norton rides her for the first time today, but he’s having a good year on Mick Channon’s horses when called upon. The partnership is 10/46 (21.7% SR) for 47.1pts (+102.4% ROI) this year, including of relevance today…

  • 8 from 35 (22.9%) for 15.7pts (+44.9%) when sent off at 5/4 to 10/1
  • 7 from 29 (24.1%) for 34.7pts (+119.7%) on horses rested for 11-45 days
  • 7 from 23 (30.4%) for 52.5pts (+228.4%) over trips of 5.5 to 8.5 furlongs
  • 7 from 19 (36.8%) for 44.3pts (+233.1%) on female horses
  • 6 from 16 (37.5%) for 41.6pts (+259.9%) in non-handicap races
  • 5 from 9 (55.6%) for 31.8pts (+353.6%) on horses placed 3rd LTO
  • 2 from 5 (40%) for 8.45pts (+169%) on the A/W
  • and 1 from 2 950%) for 2.09pts (+104.5%) here at Wolverhampton…

…and from the above…Norton + Channon + 2018 + females + 5/4 to 10/1 + 5.5 to 8.5 furlongs + 11-45 dslr = 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 19.42pts (+388.4% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG , a price offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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