Monday’s Pick was…
6.30 Kempton : Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 10f out, close up, pushed along over 2f out, soon weakened)
Tuesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG
…in an 8-runner, Class 5, Selling Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m5f on Good To Firm ground worth £4159 to the winner…
Here we have a 9 yr old gelding who has been in decent form over fences this season and now takes a drop in class, as he reverts to the smaller obstacles at a venue his yard has fared well at in the past.
In fact, trainer Dan Skelton’s runners sent off at odds of 6/1 and shorter are 17 from 53 (32.1% SR) for 12.36pts (+23.3% ROI) here at Fakenham and with today’s contest in mind, those 53 runners are…
- 16/46 (34.8%) for 15.84pts (+34.4%) in the October -April period
- 11/34 (32.4%) for 11.47pts (+33.7%) over trips of 2m to 2m5f
- 9/30 (30%) for 4.37pts (+14.6%) over hurdles
- 6/21 (28.6%) for 11.02pts (+52.5%) since the start of 2017
- 4/15 (26.7%) for 2.31pts (+15.4%) from those who last raced 11-20 days earlier
- and 2 from 3 (66.6% plus a runner-up) for 3.91pts (+130.4%) from hurdlers whose previous race was over fences.
…and from the above… Dan Skelton + Fakenham + 6/1 and shorter + 2016-18 + October-April + hurdles + 2m to 2m5f = 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 6.16pts (+38.5% ROI)…
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Monday evening, whilst there was an extra quarter point available with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!