Stat of the Day, 20th November 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

6.30 Kempton : Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 10f out, close up, pushed along over 2f out, soon weakened) 

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

1.00 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG  

…in an 8-runner, Class 5, Selling Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m5f on Good To Firm ground worth £4159 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a 9 yr old gelding who has been in decent form over fences this season and now takes a drop in class, as he reverts to the smaller obstacles at a venue his yard has fared well at in the past.

In fact, trainer Dan Skelton’s runners sent off at odds of 6/1 and shorter are 17 from 53 (32.1% SR) for 12.36pts (+23.3% ROI) here at Fakenham and with today’s contest in mind, those 53 runners are…

  • 16/46 (34.8%) for 15.84pts (+34.4%) in the October -April period
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 11.47pts (+33.7%) over trips of 2m to 2m5f
  • 9/30 (30%) for 4.37pts (+14.6%) over hurdles
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 11.02pts (+52.5%) since the start of 2017
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 2.31pts (+15.4%) from those who last raced 11-20 days earlier
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6% plus a runner-up) for 3.91pts (+130.4%) from hurdlers whose previous race was over fences.

…and from the above… Dan Skelton + Fakenham + 6/1 and shorter + 2016-18 + October-April + hurdles + 2m to 2m5f = 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 6.16pts (+38.5% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Monday evening, whilst there was an extra quarter point available with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.00 Fakenham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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