Stat of the Day, 21st November 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

1.00 Fakenham : Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Led, not fluent 5th, ridden and headed bend approaching last, soon weakened) 

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

12.40 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG  

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…in a 13-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner…

Why?

Firstly, apologies for the slightly tardy write-up, I do aim to have this online by around 9am, but I had some stuff to deal with at my daughter’s school this morning. Anyway, on with the details!

This 8 yr old gelding was a class, course and distance winner here LTO 22 days ago despite coming off a break of almost 6 months. He benefited from an excellent tactical ride from Richard Johnson (who retains the ride), doing just enough to win with enough in hand whilst protecting his mark for next time out. The result is a mere 3lb rise in weight, but he should also strip fitter for having had the run.

He’s the only previous course and distance winner in today’s contest, he loves some cut in the ground and has an excellent 30% strike rate in handicap hurdles, after winning 6 of 20 so far, including of relevance today…

  • 6/16 (37.5%) with a tongue tie
  • 6/15 (40%) going left handed
  • 5/6 (83.3%) in the final third of the year
  • 3/4 (75%) at Class 4
  • 2/4 (50%) here at Chepstow
  • 3/3 (100%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2/3 (66.6%) off a mark of 110-120
  • 2/2 (100%) in November

His trainer Martin Keighley is 22 from 83 (26.5% SR) for 71.4pts (+86% ROI) with LTO winners since the start of 2015 and these include…

  • in handicaps : 16/59 (27.1%) for 64.3pts (+109%)
  • over hurdles : 16/49 (32.7%) for 71.9pts (+146.7%)
  • in handicap hurdles : 12/33 (36.4%) for 66.9pts (+202.6%)
  • with hcp hurdlers who won a hcp hurdle LTO : 11/22 (50%) for 53.1pts (+241.4%)
  • and with hcp hurdlers who won a hcp hurdle LTO 6-25 days earlier : 9/15 (60%) for 49.8pts (+332.1%)

Martin also has a decent record record here at Chepstow, despite not actually having all that many runners come here. Since 2011, his handicap hurdlers have won 7 of 33 (21.2% SR) for 36.5pts (+110.6% ROI) profit, from which…

  • those last seen in the past 25 days are 5/18 (27.8%) for 40.44pts (+224.7%)
  • over this 3m C&D : 4/18 (22.2%) for 33.9pts (+188.4%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 5/13 (38.5%) for 13.1pts (+101.1%)
  • and at Class 4 : 4/12 (33.3%) for 17.1pts (+142.2%)

And finally, I’ll wrap this up by sharing one of my micro-systems that Solstice Star also qualifies from today…

…UK NH Hcp Hurdles + 2011-18 + LTO winner of a same class, course and distance hcp hurdle = 110/419 (26.3% SR) for 152.2pts (+36.3% ROI)…

In the interests of time, brevity etc, I’m not oing to drill down into that micro today, but it is worth noting that at trips of 3m to 3m2f, those 419 runners are 23/82 (28.1%) for 48pts (+58.5%) and those racing on Good to Soft are 17/68 (25%) for 49.5pts (+72.8%)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Hills & Sky at 5.45pm on Tuesday evening, whilst there was an extra sixth of a point available with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 12.40 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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