Wednesday’s Pick was…
12.40 Chepstow : Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG WON at 7/2 (Always prominent, led before 2nd, challenged before 2 out, stayed on strongly to win by 2.25 lengths)
Thursday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Finoah @ 10/3 BOG
…in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £4787 to the winner…
This 2 yr old gelding was a 3-lengths winner over 6 furlongs when last seen 24 days ago, whilst he was only 3 lengths adrift in a Listed contest two starts ago. His only previous visit to Wolverhampton resulted in him going down by just a short head to Sporting Chance, who has himself since won a 6f Listed race!
Since the start of 2016, trainer Tom Dascombe’s 2 yr old have a decent record here on this track, winning 12 of 80 (15% SR) for 26.9pts (+33.6% ROI) but it seems that the ones to follow are those ridden by his first choice jockey Richard Kingscote, because of those 80 2yr olds, the trainer/jockey combination is 11 from 56 (19.6% SR) for 47.4pts (+84.7% ROI), including…
- on horses rested for 11-45 days : 8/30 (26.7%) for 37.5pts (+125%)
- in fields of 5-9 runners : 9/28 (32.1%) for 65.5pts (+234%)
- over this 6f C&D : 5/21 (23.8%) for 17.94pts (+85.5%)
- and LTO winners are 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.86pts
…and from the above…those racing in fields of 5-9 runners over 6f after a break of 11-45 days are 3/6 (50% SR) for 26.43pts (+440.5% ROI)…
Tom Dascombe also has a pretty impressive record of getting his LTO winners to win again, achieving this feat on 107 of 430 (24.9% SR) occasions since the start of 2012. A simple £20 stake on each of those runners would have netted a cool £3484 profit at a healthy ROI of some 40.5%! And that’s from just blindly backing all his LTO winners.
Of course, we wouldn’t necessarily suggest such an approach, so if you wanted fewer bets…
- those rested for 11-60 days are 84/312 (26.9%) for 178.72pts (+57.3%)
- those sent off shorter than 8/1 are 96/291 (33%) for 113.17pts (+38.9%)
- those ridden by Richard Kingscote are 75/280 (26.8%) for 175.11pts (+62.5%)
- those racing at the same distance as LTO are 63/241 (26.1%) for 118.4pts (+49.1%)
- those running on the A/W are 39/120 (32.5%) for 18.33pts (+15.3%)
- 2yr olds are 29/118 (24.6%) for 94.64pts (+80.2%)
- Class 4 runners are 29/102 (28.4%) for 39.66pts (+38.9%)
- those racing over 6f are 28/95 (29.5%) for 71.32pts (+75.1%)
- in the final quarter of the year (Oct-Dec) : 20/70 (28.6%) for 22.65pts (+32.4%)
- here at Wolverhampton : 17/42 (35.4%) for 24.76pts (+51.6%)
- and on Tapeta : 10/33 (30.3%) for 12.79pts (+38.8%)
…and a composite from above?…Richard Kingscote on sub-8/1 runners racing over the same distance as an LTO win 11-60 days earlier = 30/79 (38% SR) for 39.4pts (+49.9% ROI) and this includes 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) here at Wolverhampton producing profits of 14.5pts (+181%)…
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Finoah @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by at least 8 firms at 5.45pm on Wednesday evening, whilst there was an extra sixth of a point available with BetBright for the few of you able to get on with them. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!