Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

12.40 Chepstow : Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG WON at 7/2 (Always prominent, led before 2nd, challenged before 2 out, stayed on strongly to win by 2.25 lengths) 

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Finoah @ 10/3 BOG  

…in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery  for 2yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £4787 to the winner…

Why?

This 2 yr old gelding was a 3-lengths winner over 6 furlongs when last seen 24 days ago, whilst he was only 3 lengths adrift in a Listed contest two starts ago. His only previous visit to Wolverhampton resulted in him going down by just a short head to Sporting Chance, who has himself since won a 6f Listed race!

Since the start of 2016, trainer Tom Dascombe’s 2 yr old have a decent record here on this track, winning 12 of 80 (15% SR) for 26.9pts (+33.6% ROI) but it seems that the ones to follow are those ridden by his first choice jockey Richard Kingscote, because of those 80 2yr olds, the trainer/jockey combination is 11 from 56 (19.6% SR) for 47.4pts (+84.7% ROI), including…

  • on horses rested for 11-45 days : 8/30 (26.7%) for 37.5pts (+125%)
  • in fields of 5-9 runners : 9/28 (32.1%) for 65.5pts (+234%)
  • over this 6f C&D : 5/21 (23.8%) for 17.94pts (+85.5%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.86pts

…and from the above…those racing in fields of 5-9 runners over 6f after a break of 11-45 days are 3/6 (50% SR) for 26.43pts (+440.5% ROI)…

Tom Dascombe also has a pretty impressive record of getting his LTO winners to win again, achieving this feat on 107 of 430 (24.9% SR) occasions since the start of 2012. A simple £20 stake on each of those runners would have netted a cool £3484 profit at a healthy ROI of some 40.5%! And that’s from just blindly backing all his LTO winners.

Of course, we wouldn’t necessarily suggest such an approach, so if you wanted fewer bets…

  • those rested for 11-60 days are 84/312 (26.9%) for 178.72pts (+57.3%)
  • those sent off shorter than 8/1 are 96/291 (33%) for 113.17pts (+38.9%)
  • those ridden by Richard Kingscote are 75/280 (26.8%) for 175.11pts (+62.5%)
  • those racing at the same distance as LTO are 63/241 (26.1%) for 118.4pts (+49.1%)
  • those running on the A/W are 39/120 (32.5%) for 18.33pts (+15.3%)
  • 2yr olds are 29/118 (24.6%) for 94.64pts (+80.2%)
  • Class 4 runners are 29/102 (28.4%) for 39.66pts (+38.9%)
  • those racing over 6f are 28/95 (29.5%) for 71.32pts (+75.1%)
  • in the final quarter of the year (Oct-Dec) : 20/70 (28.6%) for 22.65pts (+32.4%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 17/42 (35.4%) for 24.76pts (+51.6%)
  • and on Tapeta : 10/33 (30.3%) for 12.79pts (+38.8%)

…and a composite from above?…Richard Kingscote on sub-8/1 runners racing over the same distance as an LTO win 11-60 days earlier = 30/79 (38% SR) for 39.4pts (+49.9% ROI) and this includes 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) here at Wolverhampton producing profits of 14.5pts (+181%)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Finoah @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by at least 8 firms at 5.45pm on Wednesday evening, whilst there was an extra sixth of a point available with BetBright for the few of you able to get on with them. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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