Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

6.30 Wolverhampton : Finoah @ 10/3 BOG yet to run (report to follow) 

Friday’s pick runs in the…

2.25 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Scented Lily @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG  

…in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Good ground worth £4809 to the winner…

Why?

A 5 yr old mare who was a winner by almost 5 lengths LTO 34 days ago over 3 miles at Market Rasen. She looked to have plenty left in the tank/reserve, so I’m hoping an extra 285 yards and 5lbs won’t be enough to anchor her today.

Stat-wise, she’s a qualifier on a relatively simple micro-system I have stored, which basically says that horses priced in the broad 6/4 to 14/1 spectrum (there are no real clusters of winners at either end to skew figures, though) racing 21-60 days after winning a Novice hurdle race are 106 from 583 (18.2% SR) for 94.9pts (+16.3% ROI) in handicap hurdle contests since the start of 2013.

As usual, 583 bets over nearly 6 years might be too many from one angle for most people, so you could consider…

  • those who won by 5 lengths or less LTO : 76/394 (19.3%) for 98.9pts (+25.1%)
  • 4/5 yr olds are 44/252 (17.5%) for 40.7pts (+16.1%)
  • those last seen 31-45 days ago are 31/186 (16.7%) for 39.9pts (+21.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 36/180 (20%) for 35.3pts (+19.6%)
  • over trips of 2m6f to 3m2f : 34/159 (21.4%) for 42pts (+26.4%)
  • those stepping up in trip by 1-2 furlongs are 24/126 (19%) for 42.1pts (+33.4%)
  • female runners are 21/104 (20.2%) for 40.4pts (+38.9%)
  • and in November/December : 17/81 (21%) for 25.8pts (+31.8%)

…and a broad composite from above?…4/5 yr olds who won by 5L or less 21-45 days earlier are 15/45 (33.3% SR) for 73.8pts (+164% ROI) over trips of 2m4.5f to 3m2f

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Scented Lily @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG, prices offered by Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.15pm on Thursday evening. (I will, of course, use 3/1 for my official records) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.25 Catterick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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