Stat of the Day, 24th November 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

2.25 Catterick : Scented Lily @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Held up behind, headway when hit 7th, driven to chase front pair before 2 out, soon ridden, never on terms, weakened last) 

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

8.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fume @ 7/2 BOG  

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…in a 10-runner, Class 5,  A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

I’m away for the weekend and I’ve got connectivity issues, so I’ll keep this relatively brief, but rest assured the usual amount of research has gone into the pick!

Here we have a 2 yr old gelding (son of Frankel) who carries top weight (9st 9lbs off a mark of 72) who drops down in class after only being beaten by a neck in a Class 4, 7f Nursery at Kempton 10 days ago. The drop in class is a positive as is the booking of Oisin Murphy to take the ride, as Oisin is in good nick and has a decent record at this venue.

There are three main angles of interest with this horse/race today, starting with…

…this horse has never been to Wolverhampton or raced on Tapeta before but since the start of 2014, trainer Ralph Beckett’s (who also does well here) 2/3 yr olds with 1-7 previous career runs are 52 from 205 (25.4% SR) for 70.7pts (+34.5% ROI) when trying a new A/W surface for the first time, including 16 from 62 (25.8%) for 19.6pts (+31.6%) here at Wolverhampton.

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Then we have the fact that since the start of 2013, top weights in Wolverhampton Nursery races are 44 from 219 (20.1% SR) for 45.7pts (+20.9% ROI), from which those carrying 9st 7lbs or more are 39/170 (22.9%) for 68.7pts (+40.4%).

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And finally, we know that both jockey and trainer are in decent form and both have fared well at this venue in recent years. Surprisingly, they have very rarely teamed up here at Wolverhampton, but overall when working together, they are 41 from 216 (19% SR) for 59.6pts (+27.6% ROI) since the start of 2014…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Fume @ 7/2 BOG , prices offered by Bet365, BetVictor & BlackType respectively at 8.20pm on Friday evening. (extra half point is available from sky) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 8.15 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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