Stat of the Day, 27th November 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

2.25 Musselburgh : Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (In touch, headway on inside after 4 out, every chance from 2 out and throughout run in, just failed by a nose) 

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

2.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Ecu de la Noverie @ 4/1 BOG  

…in a 9-runner, Class 3,  Handicap Hurdle  for 3yo+ over 2m3½f on Good To Soft ground (soft in places & rain is forecast) worth £6583 to the winner…

Why?

This 4yr old gelding has some good soft ground form in France ahead of a victory on his UK debut 19 days ago on Good to soft ground. That was not only his first outing for trainer Philip Hobbs, but it was also despite a near-10 months layoff from racing.

Mr Hobbs is having an excellent month so far, racking up 18 winners from 88 (20.5% SR) for 114.4pts (+130% ROI) this November, from which his hurdlers are 11 from 45 (24.4%) for 115.9pts (+257.5%)

His record with LTO winners running in handicap hurdle contests within 25 days of their last outing currently stands at 34 from 113 (30.1% SR) for 49.9pts (+44.2% ROI) and these include…

  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 20.4pts (+45.3%) at Class 3
  • 15/41 (36.6%) for 46.1pts (+112.3%) in the final quarter of the year
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 19.6pts (+65.4%) won a Novice race LTO

And finally for today, Philip Hobbs’ runners on their second start for the yard are 26/137 (19% SR) for 96.6pts (+70.5% ROI) since the start of 2016, including…

  • those whose yard debut was in the previous 2 months : 21/90 (23.3%) for 132.4pts (+147.2%)
  • hurdlers are 15/83 (18.1%) for 51pts (+61.4%)
  • and hurdlers whose yard debut was in the previous 2 months : 12/55 (21.8%) for 71.3pts (+129.7%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Ecu de la Noverie @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by at Betfair, Paddy Power, SkyBet, 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.35pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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