Stat of the Day, 28th November 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

2.00 Lingfield : Ecu de la Noverie @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/2 (Held up in touch, good headway tracking leaders 5th, went 2nd before 2 out, led 2 out until between last 2, kept on same pace no chance with winner) : that’s now 3 runners-up on the bounce, all at decent prices and two beaten by just a neck and a nose. Tough breaks right now.

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

2.20 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Theflyingportrait @ 5/2 BOG  

…in a 9-runner, Class 3,  Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Good To Soft ground worth £8187 to the winner…

Why?

This 9yr old gelding appears to be the form horse in the contest having won here over course and distance two starts ago, before finishing as a runner-up at Aintree in a better race over slightly further 18 days ago. He was 6 lengths off the winner, which is no disgrace when you consider he was conceding 5lbs to a Class 2 horse!

To date he has won 7 of 25 (28% SR) handicap chases and with today’s conditions in mind, those 25 runs include…

  • 7 from 21 (33.3%) under jockey Sean Quinlan who returns to the saddle after missing the race LTO
  • 5 from 20 (25%) going left handed
  • 6 from 10 (60%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 4 from 9 (44.4%) off a break of less than 3 weeks
  • 3 from 5 (60%) in Class 3 contests worth less than £10k
  • and 3 from 5 (60%) if fields of 8-10 runners

…from which he is 3/3 (100% SR) for 7.89pts (+263% ROI) going left handed at odds of 4/1 and shorter under Sean Quinlan after a break of less than 3 weeks, including 2 from 2 at Class 3.

And the main stat?

In class 3/4 handicap chases during September to March, since the start of 2013, horses who won two starts ago and were then placed as runners-up next/last time out are 32 from 131 (24.4% SR) for 54.5pts (+41.6% ROI) when turned out after less than three weeks rest. Of these 131 runners and of relevance today…

  • those rated (OR) within 3lbs of their last mark : 25/104 (24%) for 50.3pts (+48.4%)
  • over trips of 3m and shorter : 27/95 (28.4%) for 72.8pts (+76.6%)
  • at the same class as LTO : 23/83 (27.7%) for 59.2pts (+71.4%)
  • off the same mark as LTO : 14/58 (24.1%) for 16.6pts (+28.6%)
  • beaten by more than 5 lengths LTO : 12/45 (26.7%) for 26.8pts (+59.5%)
  • raced at Class 3 LTO : 9/42 (21.4%) for 24.4pts (+58.1%)
  • on Good to Soft ground : 11/37 (29.7%) for 32.3pts (+87.2%)
  • raced at 1m7½f  to 2m½f  LTO : 7/29 (24.1%) for 11.67pts (+40.2%)

…and those rated within 3lbs of their last run now racing over 3m or shorter at the same class or one grade higher than LTO and were beaten by more than 5 lengths are 9 from 27 (33.3% SR) for 33.2pts (+123.1% ROI), the last qualifier of which was Trongate, who won at Ayr a fortnight ago…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Theflyingportrait @ 5/2 BOG, as offered by SkyBet, Bet365 & SportPesa at 5.45pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.20 Wetherby

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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