Stat of the Day, 29th November 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

2.20 Wetherby : Theflyingportrait @ 5/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, chased clear leader 4th, closed next, led 4 out, quickened clear 2 out, comfortable victory by 14 lengths) : Finally, a winner after 3 runners-up on the bounce!

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

5.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Livvy’s Dream @ 9/2 & 4/1 BOG  

…in an 11-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack ground worth £5693 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old filly carries bottom weight here, but brings the best recent form to the table, having won 3 of 6 handicaps this year, finishing 112 in her last three starts, including a win here over a mile in mid-September (her only previous run here) and was only beaten by 0.75 lengths over this trip at Newmarket 27 days ago in a better race than this. She now drops in class for her return to the All-Weather.

Stat-wise, I’m keeping it simple again by looking at trainer Charles Hills, because since the start of 2011, his 3 yr olds running in 3yo+ handicaps over trips further than a mile are 25 from 167 (15% SR) for 14.7pts (+8.8% ROI), a decent starting point that gives us the following of relevance today…

  • at 8.5 to 11.5 furlongs : 18/117 (15.4%) for 27.7pts (+23.7%)
  • 26-90 days since last run : 14/78 (18%) for 42.7pts (+54.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/55 (16.4%) for 24.8pts (+45.1%)
  • placed 2nd or 3rd LTO : 11/45 (24.4%) for 18.6pts (+41.4%)
  • on the A/W : 8/41 (19.5%) for 41.1pts (+100.3%)
  • beaten by 0.5 to 3 lengths LTO : 8/31 (25.8%) for 54.3pts (+175.1%)
  • and in November : 2/10 (20%) for 25.81pts (+258.1%)

…and from the above…Class 4 to 6 runners over 8.5 to 11.5 furlongs, 26-90 days after their last run are 9 from 45 (20% SR) for 33.4pts (+74.1% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Livvy’s Dream @ 9/2 & 4/1 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & Betfair respectively at 5.55pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.00 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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