Stat of the Day, 30th November 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

5.00 Kempton : Livvy’s Dream @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, effort over 1f out, never looked liked getting on terms) – seemed a strange ride to me.

Friday’s pick runs in the…

12.45 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Kupatana @ 11/4 BOG  

…in a 7-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good To Soft ground worth £12762 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a 5yr old mare who was a winner over 3 miles in her sole point to point run ahead of two wins and a place from four efforts over hurdles. She then had the thick end of 6 months (178 days to be precise) off the track, before returning to action 18 days ago at Kempton.

That Kempton race was her first crack at the larger obstacles and she landed a 2m2½f Novices Handicap Chase by a comfortable 5 lengths despite giving plenty of weight away to her rivals. There’s more to come from this one and I like her chances at a track where her yard have done well of late.

In fact, Nicky Henderson’s horses are 14 from 47 (29.8% SR) for 24.4pts (+52% ROI) here at Newbury over the last 12 months and in respect of today’s pick, those 47 runners are…

  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 24.4pts (+56.7%) on Good to Soft / Soft
  • 12/30 (40%) for 38.7pts (+129%) when sent off in the Evens to 7/1 range
  • 10/30 (33.3%) for 33pts (+110%) in the November-January first half of the NH season
  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 10.2pts (+39.3%) over this 16.5f Newbury trip
  • 11/21 (52.4%) for 35.3pts (+167.9%) with today’s jockey, Nico de Boinville, in the saddle
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 14.5pts (+85.4%) from his 5 yr olds
  • and 3 from 10 (30%) for 2.84pts (+28.4%) at Class 3

…whilst Nico de Boinville has 4 wins and a place from 5 rides over this trip at Evens to 7/1 on Good to Soft/Soft in November to January, producing 14.89pts profit at an ROI of some 297.9%.

Also of note here today, Nicky Henderson’s handicap chasers who were winners of a handicap chase LTO 16 to 25 days earlier are 5 from 7 (71.4% SR) for 23.09pts (+329.9% ROI) since the start of 2013.

And more generally, since the start of 2014, UK Class 1 to 4 handicap chasers who have rested for less than three weeks after winning a handicap chase LTO are 118/408 (28.9% SR) for 80.7pts (+19.8% ROI), from which those who won a novice handicap chase LTO are 103/342 (30.1%) for 70.7pts (+20.7%)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Kupatana @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Bet365, 10Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes & SportPesa at 5.25pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 12.45 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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