Stat of the Day, 1st December 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

12.45 Newbury : Kupatana @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Led in start, led until 3rd (water), chased winner until 9th, outpaced before next, ridden and went 3rd 3 out, left remote 2nd at the last)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

1.50 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG  

…in a 15-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £25992 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was useful on the Flat at Class 2 and better, winning over 2 miles at Ascot this summer and has 2 wins and a place from 4 efforts over hurdles, including winning over 2m5.5f at Cheltenham when last seen a fortnight ago.

Trainer Ian Williams’ handicap hurdlers are 25 from 113 (22.1% SR) for 97.1pts (+85.9% ROI) over trips of 2m4f to 2m6f since the start of 2015 and these include of relevance today…

  • males at 21/91 (23.1%) for 104.2pts (+114.6%)
  • those last seen 6-45 days ago are 20/75 (26.7%) for 59.8pts (+79.7%)
  • those sent off shorter than 5/1 are 18/46 (39.1%) for 23.9pts (+52%)
  • those ridden by Tom O’Brien are 6/25 924%) for 7.55pts (+30.2%)
  • LTO winners are 8/22 (36.4%) for 4.57pts (+20.8%)
  • and at Class 2 : 4/18 (22.2%) for 58.4pts (+324.5%)

…and from the above : sub-5/1 males at 6-45 dslr = 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) for 13pts (+46.4% ROI)…

It would be remiss of me to point out that we’re expecting soft ground, but confidence is taken from the fact that since the start of 2012, Ian’s soft ground NH handicappers are 19/58 (32.8% SR) for 29.8pts (+51.4% ROI) at odds of 5/4 to 6/1.

And finally, his LTO winners sent back out after a rest of less than three weeks are 49 from 160 (30.6% SR) for 55.2pts (+34.5% ROI) in handicap contests since the start of 2014…

…steering us towards… a 1pt win bet on Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Friday evening, whilst Ladbrokes were offering an extras half point on top. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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