Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

1.50 Newbury : Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Shade keen tracking leaders, 3rd and one pace from 2 out, blundered last)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

5.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG  

…in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo over 1m1½f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was a decent second off this mark at Chelmsford last time out, that was over slightly longer (1m2f) over at Chelmsford 18 days ago and a similar level of performance now switched to slightly shorter on Tapeta could well be the key to her breaking her maiden tag.

She’s actually been running pretty well with two runner-up finishes sandwiching another couple of decent efforts in her last four outings and in what looks a fairly weak (albeit open) contest, she could well finally go one better.

I mention the switch of surface possibly being a help today and this is backed up by the fact that since the start of 2015, offspring of Sea The Stars are 8 from 42 (19.1% SR) for 8.9pts (+21.2% ROI) in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, having not run on the surface last time out. Of relevance today and from those 42 runners…

• those who ran on the A/W LTO are 6/20 (30%) for 21.63pts (+108.2%)
• 3 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 3.6pts (+18%)
• females are 5/19 (26.3%) for 22.2pts (+116.8%)
• over trips of 1m to 1m2f : 5/18 (27.8%) for 18.56pts (+103.1%)
• after a short 11-20 day break : 4/14 (28.6%) for 22.5pts (+160.7%)
• at Class 6 : 3/11 (27.3%) for 19.9pts (+180.9%)
• and those who ran at Chelmsford LTO are 2/8 (25%) for 11.2pts (+139.5%)

*

7lb claimer Oliver Stammers is in the saddle today and in his short 10-month career so far has won 10 of 84 (11.9% SR) races, which is a decent enough start, but of those 84 races, he has done particularly well in A/W handicaps, winning 6 of 35 (17.1% SR) for 18.4pts (+52.5% ROI) profits, including…

• at Class 6 : 5/25 (20%) for 21.6pts (+86.4%)
• over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 5/16 (31.25%) for 33.07pts (+206.7%)
• and at Class 6 over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 4/14 (28.6%) for 28.3pts (+202.2%)

*

Plus there’s a distinct possibility that our pick will go off as favourite today and considering that blindly backing favs is a quick way to the poor house, you might be surprised to discover that backing favs trained by Hughie Morrison is actually a profitable venture.

Blindly backing such runners has turned a profit in 10 of the last 12 years and since the start of 2011 (having made a loss in 2010!), those favs are 142/411 (34.6% SR) for 33.8pts (+8.2% ROI), from which the last five years have seen 89 winners from 253 (35.2%) for 29.3pts (+11.6%) profit including…

• in handicaps : 61/189 (32.3%) for 26pts (+13.7%)
• female runners are 36/101 (35.6%) for 13.5pts (+13.4%)
• female handicappers are 24/72 (33.3%) for 12.14pts (+16.9%)
• and female handicappers on the A/W are 13 from 33 (39.4%) for 7.27pts (+22%)

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.15 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!