Stat of the Day, 4th December 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

5.15 Wolverhampton : Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG 11th at 4/1 (Report to follow, but a switch of tactics to front-running was clearly a poor decision)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

12.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Wotadoll @ 3/1 BOG  

…in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner…


This 4 yr old filly was a comfortable 4 lengths winner in a similar Class 6, 6 furlong handicap at Chelmsford when last seen 26 days ago and Fink Hill was four lengths behind her in fourth place, but has since reappeared to win a Class 5 contest, so I’m hoping/expecting the form to hold out.

The Dean Ivory/Robert Winston trainer/jockey combo has had a good year so far, combining for 10 wins from 37 (27% SR) and 28.2pts (+76.1% ROI) profit in A/W handicaps since New Year, including…

  • 4 from 11 (36.4%) for 5.84pts (+53.1%) over 6f
  • 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 13.67pts (+227.8%) at Class 6
  • and 4 from 5 (80%) for 29.9pts (+598%) here at Lingfield, which is excellent.

And the bigger picture?

Dean Ivory + Lingfield A/W handicaps + 7/4 to 10/1 + 2013 to 2018 = 22/95 (23.2% SR) for 61.5pts (+64.8% ROI), from which…

  • Class 6 = 8/40 (20%) for 19.9pts (+49.7%)
  • 6 furlongs C&D = 10/36 (27.8%) for 23.6pts (+65.7%)
  • Robert Winston = 7/33 (33.3%) for 13.8pts (+42%)
  • November/December = 7/28 (25%) for 28.2pts (+100.8%)
  • females = 6/25 (24%) for 19.75pts (+79%)
  • 4 yr olds = 6/23 (26.1%) for 23.8pts (+103.3%)
  • 2018 = 6/15 (40%) for 35.4pts (+236.1%)
  • and LTO winners = 5/15 (33.3%) for 16.4pts (+109.2%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Wotadoll @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Bet365, SkyBet and BlackType (latter non-BOG until 10am) at 5.35pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 12.50 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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