Stat of the Day, 5th December 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

12.50 Lingfield : Wotadoll @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (In touch, headway over 1f out, ran on to lead closing stages, ridden out to win by half a length)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

1.45 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Sumkindofking @ 11/4 BOG  

…in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good To Soft worth £12086 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding made the switch to the bigger obstacles 7 months ago and has made the frame in 6 of 7 efforts so far, winning twice. His best performance was arguably at Wincanton last time out when a runner-up by just 2.5 lengths in a Listed race. There was no disgrace in the defeat 25 days ago, as he went down to a Paul Nicholls-trained favourite (we know how well they do!) with previous winning form at Gr2 and he was 11 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

Stat-wise, I’ll be keeping it relatively simple today, focusing on trainer Tom George, whose runners are 4 from 19 (21.05% SR) over the last fortnight, but more pertinently are 16 from 40 (40% SR) for 26.88pts (+67.2% ROI) in chases here at Ludlow when sent off at 5/1 or shorter since the start of 2013 and these include of relevance today…

  • males @ 16/39 (41%) for 27.88pts (+71.5%)
  • in hcps : 15/38 (39.5%) for 26.75pts (+70.4%)
  • within 2 months of last run : 12/33 (36.4%) for 18.82pts (+57%)
  • November to April = 15/32 (46.9%) for 32.99pts (+103.1%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/31 (41.9%) for 27.51pts (+88.7%)
  • and 5-7 yr olds are 12/25 (48%) for 25.58pts (+102.3%)

And a composite from the above?

In Class 3 handicaps during December to April, 5-7 yr old males rested for less than 7 weeks are 8 from 12 (66.6% SR) for 25.17pts (+209.7% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Sumkindofking @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.45 Ludlow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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