Stat of the Day, 6th December 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

12.50 Lingfield : Sumkindofking @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, led after 2 out, headed last, stayed on same pace flat) Ran out of steam on ground that was nowhere near Good to Soft (Good in places) as declared by the BHA/course.

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

2.35 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Bermeo @ 3/1 BOG  

…in a 9-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m3f on Good ground worth £4549 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding is 1112 in his last four starts and was only beaten by two lengths LTO 17 days ago, despite stepping up in both trip and class. He’s now back down on both counts to favoured conditions and looks well set for another good run today.

He was flagged up on one of the angles I’ve got stored from the Geegeez Query Tool, where I look for Class 4/5 handicap chasers to back. In this instance, trainer Johnny Farrelly’s C4/5 hcp chasers at odds of 15/8 to 11/2 (my preferred betting range) are 18 from 42 (42.9% SR) for 41.6pts (+99.1% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these include of relevance today…

  • males at 16/35 (45.7%) for 37.4pts (+106.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 8/18 (44.4%) for 19.6pts (+108.7%)
  • those dropping in trip : 7/15 (46.7%) for 15.67pts (+104.5%)
  • 7 yr olds are 10/14 (71.4%) for 28.4pts (+202.5%)
  • at trips of 3m1.5f to 3m4f : 8/11 (72.7%) for 28.12pts (+255.6%)
  • those dropping in class : 5/10 (50%) for 11.46pts (+114.6%)
  • in 2018 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 7.31pts (+81.2%)
  • and those ridden by Noel Fehily are 3/5 (60%) for 8.17pts (+163.4%)

In addition to that fairly compelling data above, since the start of 2017 in the proper NH season, Johnny’s LTO beaten favourites are 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 21.89pts (+218.9% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Bermeo @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.35 Wincanton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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