Stat of the Day, 7th December 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

2.15 Wincanton : Bermeo @ 3/1 BOG fell at 3/1 (Chased leaders, every chance 3 out, fell on landing 2 out)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

12.50 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Cap St Vincent @ 11/4 BOG  

…in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Good To Soft ground worth £9384 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from just three efforts over fences so far and comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Ludlow (by 8l) 22 days ago and then at Musselburgh (by 7l) 11 days later/ago with today’s jockey Alan Johns in the saddle on both occasions.

Stat-wise, he became of interest as a qualifier of one of my micros that looks at LTO winners of handicap chases and whilst the strategy might look complicated in print, it’s actually pretty straightforward and logical ie…

…Since the start of 2013 : males running in Class 3/4, UK Handicap Chases shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word “Good” in the official description who won a handicap chase LTO less than three weeks earlier and aren’t now dropping in class are 238 from 872 (27.3% SR) for 155.7pts (+17.9% ROI)…

And as 872 bets over 5 yrs from just one angle is too many for lots of people, there are various angles you could attack this strategy from, but I’ll just give you ten that are all relevant today…

  • at SP odds of 6/4 to 10/1 : 172/686 (25.1%) for 189.6pts (+27.6%)
  • 6 to 15 days after that LTO win : 157/517 (30.4%) for 131.4pts (+25.4%)
  • won by 2 to 10 lengths LTO : 129/411 (31.4%) for 152.2pts (+37%) this is a good/simple filter : just 47% of the original bets for only 3.5pts less profit!
  • at Class 3 : 88/361 (24.4%) for 76pts (+21%)
  • stepping up in class : 93/340 (27.4%) for 70.1pts (+20.6%)
  • on good to soft : 71/270 (26.3%) for 61.5pts (+22.8%)
  • in 2018 : 40/122 (32.8%) for 35.7pts (+29.3%)
  • at 1m7.5f/2m : 36/94 (38.3%) for 58.1pts (+61.8%)
  • trained by Tim Vaughan : 5/12 (41.7%) for 3.07pts (+25.6%)
  • and here at Sandown : 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.3pts (+78.7%)

You can, of course, combine the above to make a composite micro, but you do dilute the sample size each time you add a new filter, but if you wanted say around 15% of the original number of bets, then…Class 3 at 6/4 to 10/1, 6-15 dslr, won by a neck to 10L LTO = 35/123 (28.5% SR) for 78.4pts (+63.7% ROI), including 6 from 15 (40%) for 10.05pts (+67%) this year alone…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Cap St Vincent @ 11/4 BOG , as offered by Bet365, 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.25pm on Thursday evening, whilst an extra quarter of a point was available from SkyBet. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 12.50 Sandown

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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