Stat of the Day, 8th December 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

12.50 Sandown : Cap St Vincent @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Held up in touch, headway 8th, ridden to chase leaders before 3 out, went 3rd next, kept on same pace, no impression with front pair)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

1.55 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG  

…in an 11-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m on Heavy ground worth £7408 to the winner…

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

Here we have a 6 yr old gelding, the only previous winner at this trip in this field (has won over C&D) and is trained by Philip Hobbs, whose runners seem to have been in great form of late ie…

Last 30 days = 20 from 98 (20.4% SR) for 200.2pts (+204.3% ROI), including 8/31 (25.8%) for 102.5pts (+330.8%) in chases

Last 14 days = 10/32 (31.25%) for 93.3pts (+291.5%), inc 5/10 (50%) for 101.35pts (+1013.5%) over fences

And the past 7 days = 6/14 (42.9%) for 97.5pts (+696.2%) with 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 99.7pts (+1994%) over the larger obstacles.

Note : the P/L and resultant ROI figures are above are skewed by a 50/1 winner last Saturday that paid out at over 90/1 on the exchanges, but that doesn’t detract from the strike rates.

In addition to very good recent form, Mr Hobbs’ handicap chasers are 16 from 96 (16.6% SR) for 14.4pts (+15% ROI) since 2009, including…

  • at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 : 15/54 (27.8%) for 23pts (+42.7%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 9/51 (17.6%) for 23.5pts (+46%)
  • on heavy ground : 4/28 (14.3%) for 18.8pts (+67.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 6/25 (24%) for 8.24pts (+33%)
  • and 6 yr olds are 5/14 (35.7%) for 12.3pts (+87.9%)

…whilst those sent off at 2/1 to 6.1 over today’s course and distance are 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.09pts (+58%) including 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 5.45pts (+68.1%) on heavy ground.

Finally, as it’s Saturday, it would be remiss of me not to mention Mr Hobbs’ excellent record in Saturday handicaps. Saturday racing is ultra competitive and many people (owners, trainers and punters alike) find it hard to have a winner on these days, but if you were to follow Philip Hobbs in Saturday Class 1-3 handicap chases from October to January inclusive, you could do pretty well for yourself.

Since the start of 2013, such beasts (all male) are 32 from 151 (21.2% SR) for 93.5pts (+61.9%ROI), a remarkable record that includes of relevance today…

  • at odds of 2/1 to 10/1 : 29/114 (25.4%) for 88pts (+77.2%)
  • over trips of 3m/3m1f : 10/42 (23.8%) for 20.6pts (+49%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/38 (23.7%) for 18.95pts (+49.9%)
  • in December : 8/38 (21%) for 30.8pts (+81.1%)
  • on heavy  :6/27 (22.2%) for 13.27pts (+49.1%)
  • at Chepstow : 5/24 (20.8%) for 6.93pts (+28.9%)
  • 6 yr olds : 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.22pts (+59.1%)
  • and in 2018 alone : 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.45pts (+137.1%)

…and from the above, those sent off at 2/1 to 10/1 over trips of 3m/3m1f are 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 27.6pts (+78.8% ROI), including 7 from 14 (50%) for 17.74pts (+126.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 4/1…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening, whilst an extra half a point was available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.55 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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