Stat of the Day, 10th December 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

1.55 Chepstow : Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Held up and behind, steady progress 8th, went 2nd approaching 5 out, challenged 3 out, ridden to lead flat, stayed on to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

2.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG  

…in a 4-runner, Class 3, Veterans Handicap Chase  for 9yo+ over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £7849 to the winner… 


Here we have a 10 yr old mare, whose suitability for the task ahead is shown by her following achievements to date…

  • 5 wins and 3 places from 15 on soft/heavy ground
  • 3 wins and 3 places from 11 under jockey Paddy Brennan
  • 3 wins from 7 at Class 3
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 7 on heavy ground
  • 4 wins from 4 at odds of 3/1 and shorter

Her trainer, Fergal O’Brien, is 11 from 37 (29.7% SR) for 29.9pts (+80.7% ROI) with 10yr old chasers sent off at Evens to 9/1 since the start of 2013, from which Class 3 runners are 6/14 (42.9%) for 28.1pts (+200.8%).

In addition to the above…O’Brien + Brennan + Hcp Chases + 2014-18 = 47/255 (18.4% SR) for 64.5pts (+25.3% ROI), from which…

  • over 2m4f to 3m4f : 40/196 (20.4%) for 67.1pts (+34.2%)
  • November-April : 27/128 (21.1%) for 81.1pts (+63.4%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f in November-April : 23/101 (22.8%) for 76.4pts (+75.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 22/91 (24.2%) for 72.3pts (+79.5%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 : 18/71 (25.4%) for 66.1pts (+93.1%)
  • at Class 3 in Nov-Apr : 13/51 (25.5%) for 61.9pts (+121.4%)

…and over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 in November-April = 11/41 (26.8% SR) for 58.3pts (+142.2% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by a dozen firms at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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