Stat of the Day, 11th December 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

2.30 Lingfield : Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/2 (Led, not fluent 3 out, soon headed, rallied after last, stayed on under pressure to lead again last strides to win by 0.75 lengths) – keep an eye on this old girl : she’s even better over further in the mud!

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

12.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Kommander Kirkup @ 4/1 BOG  

…in a 10-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes  for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £3752 to the winner… 

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a course and distance winner last time out, 11 days ago and now has 4 wins and 5 places from 13 runs on this track, including…

  • 4/10 (40%) over course and distance
  • 4/8 (50%) competing for less than £8,000
  • 3/6 (50%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 3/3 (100%) in November/December

His trainer, Michael Herrington’s LTO winners are 9/43 (20.9% SR) for 9.21pts (+21.4% ROI) profit since 2013 when sent off at odds ranging from 6/4 to 7/1 and these include…

  • on the A/W : 7/31 (22.6%) for 12.88pts (+41.6%)
  • Class 5/6 : 8/28 (28.6%) for 14.72pts (+52.6%)
  • 2016-18 : 6/28 (21.4%) for 8.21pts (+29.3%)
  • 5/6 furlongs : 5/27 (18.5%) for 5.81pts (+21.5%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 6/19 (31.6%) for 14.57pts (+76.7%)
  • and in December : 3/4 (75%) for 2.24pts (+306%)

…whilst since 2011, Michael’s runners in claimers sent off at 6/4 to 5/1 are 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 6.09pts (+33.8% ROI), from which…

  • on the A/W = 4/15 (26.7%) for 4.56pts (+30.4%)
  • 11-30 days since last run = 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.09pts (+72.1%)
  • carrying 8-13 to 9-07 = 5/11 (45.5%) for 13.09pts (+119%)
  • rated (OR) 66-79 = 5/11 (45.5%) for 13.09pts (+119%)
  • previous C&D runners = 4/11 (36.4%) for 8.57pts (+77.9%)
  • and over 6f = 3/10 (30%) for 5.9pts (+59%)

And although, they’re fairly relatively small sample sizes, I do think there’s a distinct MO at play, especially as those rated 66-79 carrying 8-13 to 9-07, 11-30 days after their last run are 5 from 7 (71.4% SR) for 17.09pts (+244.1% ROI), which can be further analysed as follows…

  • A/W : 4 from 6
  • prev C&D runners : 4/5
  • A/W & prev C&D runners : 4/5
  • over 6f : 3/5
  • over 6f on A/W : 3/5
  • prev C&D runners over 6f : 3/4
  • prev C&D runners over 6f on A/W : 3 from 4, all since October 2015…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Kommander Kirkup @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms at 5.40pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 12.50 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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