Stat of the Day, 12th December 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

12.50 Southwell : Kommander Kirkup @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Towards rear, pushed along 4f out, ridden and headway entering final 2f, no impression final furlong) – never really travelled well to be honest and was being bumped along from an early point.

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

2.50 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Echo Express @ 10/3 BOG

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…in a 7-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft (Heavy in places) ground worth £4484 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was a decent enough runner-up when last seen 3 weeks ago, that was over course and distance and was only his second visit to Hexham (placed both times), first crack at the minimum trip, first effort over fences and first time with today’s jockey Brian Hughes in the saddle, as well as his first run in over 25 weeks.

With that pipe-opener under his belt and running in similar condition to LTO, allied to a drop in class and weight, there are plenty of reasons to be confident about a decent run again today.

His yard is going well enough right now too, trainer Nicky Richards had a couple of winners at relatively-nearby Kelso last Sunday and although he doesn’t send many runners on the short 45 mile trip from his Cumbrian HQ over to Hexham, those that come here tend to fare pretty well with his handicappers winning 7 of 27 (25.9% SR) for 11.01pts (+40.8% ROI) since the start of 2013, including the following of relevance today…

  •  at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 6/18 (33.3%) for 10.36pts (+57.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.91pts (+63.6%)
  • in chases : 3/14 (21.4%) for 4.63pts (+33.1%)
  • within 30 days of their last run : 5/11 (45.5%) for 14.95pts (+135.9%)
  • dropping down a class : 3/9 (33.3%) for 4.24pts (+47.1%)
  • 6 yr olds : 4/7 (57.1%) for 19.82pts (+283.1%)
  • and those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/7 (42.9%) for 4.19pts (+59.9%)

We’ve got soft ground that’s going to be heavy in places today and a 7-runner field largely bereft on any discernible form in such conditions, but not our boy. He has a win and a place from three runs on soft and was placed in one of his two heavy ground runs, but that’s not a surprise when you consider the fact that since the start of 2014, Nicky Richards’ handicappers are 51 from 233 (21.9% SR) for 65.2pts (+28% ROI) when backed blindly on any ground deemed soft or worse. Mind you, he does train his horses in one of the wettest locations in England!

Of these 233 mudlarks, with today’s race in mind…

  • males are 49/216 (22.7%) for 72.7pts (+33.7%)
  • chasers are 22/105 (21%) for 27pts (+25.8%)
  • in December / January : 20/90 (22.2%) for 47.9pts (+46.5%)
  • top 2 finish LTO : 25/84 (29.8%) for 27pts (+32.1%)
  • within 25 days of last run : 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.9pts (+75.2%)
  • 6 yr olds are 15/50 (30%) for 57pts (+54%)
  • ridden by Brian Hughes : 2/5 (40%) for 13.1pts (+262.2%)
  • and here at Hexham : 2/4 (50%) for 0.42pts (+10.6%)

…and based around the above categories : Since the start of 2014, Nicky Richards’ 5-10 yr old male handicap chasers racing on soft/heavy ground in December to February, 2 to 8 weeks after a top 4 finish LTO are 14 from 29 (48.3% SR) for 52.7pts (+181.6% ROI)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Echo Express @ 10/3 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.35pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.50 Hexham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

PPS Thursday’s selection will appear later on Wednesday than usual, I’ve got an appointment I can’t get out of!

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