Stat of the Day, 13th December 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

12.50 Southwell : Echo Express @ 10/3 BOG WON at 7/4 (In touch, headway to chase leaders 4 out, led 3 out, strongly challenged after last, held on gamely to win by half a length)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.15 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Capeland @ 3/1 BOG

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…in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m2f on Good ground worth £9357 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 year old gelding has been a model of consistency over the past 12 months with a form line reading 222211, with the last five of those six runs representing his entire chasing career. The wins were both at today’s Class 3 and over 1m7.5f and 2m4f respectively, so he’s at the right level and a 2n2f trip shouldn’t be beyond him, especially as he won over hurdles at 2m2.5f.

His trainer Paul Nicholls isn’t generally a man you can follow blindly and make a profit from, despite consistently firing in winners : they just get overbet. However, there are some areas where you can benefit.

In the the past 14 days, Paul’s runners are 11/38 (29% SR) for 31.8pts (+83.8% ROI), including those ridden by today’s jockey Harry Cobden at 8/21 (38.1%) for 19.3pts (+92.1%), whilst his chasers are 4/17 (23.5%) for 19.9pts (+117.1%).

Another successful angle at play today is the Nicholls / Cobden / Taunton combination with horses priced shorter than 10/3, which currently stands at 9 from 17 (52.9% SR) for 3.9pts (+22.9% ROI).

More generally, however, and with a “proper” sample size for our purpose is the fact that…since the start of 2014 in UK Class 1-4 handicap chases, horses sent off at 7/1 and shorter, 6 to 30 days after winning a novice chase LTO are 176 from 630 (27.9% SR) for 87.4pts (+13.9% ROI), from which the following data subsets are relevant…

  • males are 165/581 (28.4%) for 92.1pts (+15.96%)
  • winners in a handicap LTO : 152/530 (28.7%) for 76.9pts (+14.5%)
  • Class 3 : 78/285 (27.4%) for 36.7pts (+12.9%)
  • on Good ground : 78/241 (30.3%) for 41.1pts (+17.1%)
  • in December : 22/75 (29.3%) for 15.5pts (+20.7%)
  • at Taunton : 5/15 (33.3%) for 0.16pts (+1.04%)
  •  and with Harry Cobden on board : 3/8 (37.5%) for 1.09pts (+13.6%)

…and Class 3 males on good ground who won a Handicap Novice Chase LTO are 28/78 (35.9% SR) for 25.6pts (+32.9% ROI)…

Finally, considering that our pick is likely to attract market attention (not because I picked it, mind!) and is quite likely to be sent off as favourite, it’s worth knowing that backing favs isn’t always a bad thing. Especially as since 2012, favourites in Taunton handicap chases are 53 from 139 (38.1% SR) for 28.4pts (+20.5% ROI) backed blindly, including…

  • those rested for 45 days or less : 46/117 (39.3%) for 24.8pts (+21.2%)
  • LTO winners are 23/38 (60.5%) for 27.1pts (+71.3%)
  • and those who won LTO in the previous 45 days are 21/35 (60%) for 22.5pts (+64.3%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Capeland @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Bet365, Hills, 10Bet & SportPesa at 6.25pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.15 Taunton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

PPS Thursday’s selection will appear later on Wednesday than usual, I’ve got an appointment I can’t get out of!

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