Stat of the Day, 14th December 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

3.15 Taunton : Capeland @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway before 3 out, blundered 3 out, kept on and held towards finish, going down by half a length)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

2.30 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Grade 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £33762 to the winner…


This 8 yr old gelding was a winner of a similar quality Grade 3 handicap chase here at Cheltenham over 3m3.5f when last seen 27 days ago, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue today, which isn’t surprising considering that offspring of Shirocco are 14 from 115 (12.2% SR) for 21.5pts (+18.7% ROI) backed blindly at trips of 2m6f to 3m3.5f since 2015, from which…

  • those competing for prizes below £35k are 14/108 (13%) for 28.5pts (+26.4%)
  • males are 11/98 (11.2%) for 22.2pts (+22.6%)
  • 11-45 days since last run = 10/75 (13.3%) for 14.1pts (+18.8%)
  • 6-8 yr olds are 11/71 (15.5%) for 36.4pts (+51.2%)
  • on Good / Good to Soft : 11/71 (15.5%) for 33.8pts (+47.6%)
  • in fields of 5-11 runners : 11/69 (15.9%) for 32.1pts (+46.5%)
  • in 2018 alone : 7/42 (16.7%) for 26pts (+62%)
  • and at 3m1.5f to 3m3.5f : 4/21 919%) for 25.4pts (+120.9%)

Our trainer is Philip Hobbs (so you won’t be surprised to see Richard Johnson in the saddle, but I won’t bore you by repeating the well known/worn trainer jockey stats!) and Mr Hobbs is in good form again right now, with 13 winners from 44 already this month and that 29.6% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of some 109.4pts (+248.6% ROI) to betfair SP, including…

  • at odds of 9/1 and shorter : 12/35 (34.3%) for 31.7pts (+90.5%)
  • chasers are 7/18 (38.9%) for 117.5pts (+625.8%)
  • Sub 10/1 chasers are 6/14 (42.9%) for 34.8pts (+248.6%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 5/8 (62.5%) for 24.7pts (+309%) (all were chasers)
  • and sub-10/1 runners at 3m and beyond = 5/7 (71.4%) for 25.7pts (+367.4%)  (all were chasers)

And finally, a quick look at Philip Hobbs excellent record here over fences at NH HQ, particularly with those with a bit (but not too much!) of market support behind them. What I look for is a Philip Hobbs Cheltenham handicap chaser sent off longer than 3/1 but still at single digit odds and in numerical terms, we have…

Hobbs + Chelts HC Chasers @ 10/3 to 9/1 = 14/55 (25.5% SR) for 61.7pts (+112.2% ROI) since the start of 2012 and these include of relevance today…

  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 12/39 (30.8%) for 59.2pts (+151.7%)
  • previous Chelts winners are 7/26 (26.9%) for 26pts (+100%)
  • Class 1 = 5/24 (20.8%) for 23.5pts (+97.9%)
  • aiming at prizes of £25k to £35k : 9/23 (39.1%) for 54.8pts (+238.2%)
  • Grade 3 = 5/18 (27.8%) for 29.5pts (+163.9%)
  • 8 yr olds are 5/17 (29.4%) for 28.2pts (+166.1%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 24.2pts (+268.5%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG, as offered by Hills, Ladbrokes & Coral at 5.25pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.30 Cheltenham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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