Stat of the Day, 15th December 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

2.30 Cheltenham : Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Pressed leader until 10th, mistake 18th, weakened after 3 out)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

4.20 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Another Angel @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £3493 to the winner…

Why?

Five of the last six runs for this 4 yr old gelding have been here on the 5f tapeta strip at Newcastle and he has finished 11221 in those contests with the latest course and distance success coming 10 days ago under today’s jockey Cameron Hardie who has 2 wins and 2 places from 4 rides of the five above, whilst the horse is 3/3 at Class 6 in those same five C&D runs.

As well as being in excellent form, this multiple C&D winner (see your horses for courses report) was flagged up in one of my saved systems, namely…

…2013-18 / Class 4-6 / LTO winners at 6-4 to 16-1 by a head or more / now running at same class as a C&D win in the past 10 days…

Such runners are 190/551 (34.5% SR) and have generated 112.4pts at an ROI of 20.4% backed blindly, from which…

  • Same C&D as LTO : 186/539 (34.5%) for 107.7pts (+20%)
  • in handicaps : 180/525 (34.3%) for 100.9pts (+19.2%)
  • those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 186/498 (37.4%) for 123.6pts (+24.8%)
  • males are 148/427 (34.7%) for 93.5pts (+21.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 97/296 (32.8%) for 34.2pts (+11.6%)
  • on the A/W : 102/292 (34.9%) for 60pts (+20.5%)
  • over the minimum 5f trip : 24/72 (33.3%) for 28.5pts (+39.6%)
  • and here at Newcastle : 8/20 (40%) for 5.9pts (+29.5%)

…and a composite based on the above? 

…in handicaps over same course, distance and class with males shorter than 7/1 at Class 5&6 =  110/291 (37.8% SR) for 73.3pts (+25.2% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Another Angel @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Skybet & 10Bet at 5.50pm on Friday evening, although those with the option to do so, could take 10/3 BOG from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.20 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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