Stat of the Day, 17th December 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

4.20 Newcastle : Another Angel @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/4 (Held up in mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on to take 2nd near finish, no chance with winner)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 161 in his last three runs, all under today’s jockey CJ McGovern, who once again claims 3lbs. The latest of those runs was a course and distance success here where our boy was more comfortable than a one length success would suggest, having been clear for the best part of the final furlong.

That win took his career stats to a point that includes the following…

  • 5 wins & 3 places from 25 over 6 furlongs (2w, 3pl from 9 on A/W)
  • 2 from 6 in a visor (2/3 on A/W)
  • 2 from 5 under CJ McGovern (2/3 on A/W)

His trainer, Julie Camacho, isn’t exactly a household name outside of her own home and she’s not what you’d call prolific, but she’s quietly pretty good at getting certain horses to win certain races and although it would have been a bit of a rollercoaster ride, you might be surprised to hear/read that blindly backing all her handicappers over the last six years would have been a profitable venture!

Numerically, you’d be looking at 66 winners from 589 runners with the resultant 11.2% strike rate yielding 66.05pts profit at an ROI of 11.2%. Neither the SR nor the ROI are earth shattering on the face of it, but to make more than 10% from a “set & forget” approach is actually very good. To see which types of runners/races work best for Julie…

  • in races worth less than £13,000 : 63/554 (11.4%) for 71.7pts (+12.9%)
  • males are 55/485 (11.3%) for 115.2pts (+23.8%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 52/368 (14.1%) for 188.1pts (+51.1%)
  • Mondays to Thursdays : 36/314 (11.5%) for 50.3pts (+16%)
  • Class 5 : 26/247 (10.5%) for 69pts (+28%)
  • in 2018 : 21/136 (15.4%) for 17.9pts (+13.2%)
  • over 6f : 14/106 (13.2%) for 77pts (+72.6%)
  • November to February : 15/100 (15%) for 46.4pts (+46.4%)
  • on Mondays : 12/89 (13.5%) for 61.5pts (+69.1%)
  • using a jockey claiming 3lbs : 18/84 (21.4%) for 88.2pts (+105%)
  • 6 yr olds are 13/80 (16.25%) for 26pts (+32.5%)
  • and those ridden by CJ McGovern are 3/10 (30%) for 17.7pts (+177%)

…and from the above… Since the start of 2013, Julie Camacho’s male handicappers racing over trips shorter than a mile for a prize of less than £13,000 are 41 from 276 (14.9% SR) for profits of 225.3pts (+81.6% ROI), from which her 3-6 yr olds are 37/229 (16.2%) for 243.2pts (+106.2% ROI) : an angle worth noting and popping in your portfolio.

…and which gives us… a 1pt win bet on Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor & Unibet at 6.05pm on Sunday evening with an extra quarter of a point available from Paddy Power. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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