Stat of the Day, 18th December 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

5.45 Wolverhampton : Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Pulled hard tracking leader, effort over 1f out, faded final furlong but beaten by less than 1.75 lengths)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

2.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Tan @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 5f on Fibresand worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding ran well enough five days ago to finish as runner-up in a Class 4 contest at Chelmsford and has to be of interest off the same mark (74), but dropping in class in a bid to land a fourth win of the year.

He has already won one of his two attempts over course and distance and has 3 wins and 4 places from just 9 runs with today’s jockey Ali Rawlinson on board. Ali, himself, is riding really well right now and over the last month has ridden 6 winners and 5 placers from 26 outings with a win strike rate of 23.1% generating level stakes profits of 10.05pts at an ROI of 38.7%.

Our trainer today is the relatively locally-based (an hour’s drive away) Mick Appleby, who has excelled in this type of contest in recent years. Numerically speaking we’re looking at 51 winners from 235 (21.7% SR) in Class 5 A/W handicaps here since the start of 2018. These runners do attract money from punters, hence a very modest profit of just 4.95pts at an ROI of 2.1% from those runners.

However, that’s (a) backing all of them blindly, so is a good starting point and (b) we’d always expect to get more via BOG or an early non-guaranteed price. If, though, you didn’t want to back them blindly and you did, of course, want to improve the SR and ROI (who wouldn’t?), you could consider some of the following angles at play today…

  • for prizes of less than £4k : 49/224 (21.9%) for 10pts (+4.5%)
  • 3 to 8 yr olds : 48/206 (23.3%) for 15.8pts (+7.7%)
  • males : 36/156 (23.1%) for 11.9pts (+7.6%)
  • OR 65-74 : 35/150 (23.3%) for 23.7pts (+15.8%)
  • 3-20 days since last run : 33/135 (24.4%) for 25.1pts (+18.6%)
  • top 3 finish LTO : 27/106 (25.5%) for 13.8pts (+13%)
  • 2/1 to 6/1 : 32/98 (32.7%) for 65.3pts (+66.6%) this is a good place to look first!
  • ridden by Ali Rawlinson : 13/54 (24.1%) for 1.13pts (+2.1%)
  • and over this 5f C&D : 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.7pts (+115.9%)

…and a composite for about a dozen bets per year?

Mick Appleby + Southwell male Class 5 A/W handicappers at 3 -8 yrs old+ OR 65-74 + sub-£4k prize + less than a month’s rest = 22/70 (31.4% SR) for 44pts (+62.9% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Tan @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by SkyBet, Bet365, 10Bet, SportPesa & SportNation at 5.25pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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