Tuesday’s Pick was…
2.00 Southwell : Tan @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 13/8 (Pulled hard tracking leader, effort over 1f out, faded final furlong but beaten by less than 1.75 lengths)
Wednesday’s pick runs in the…
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Rich Approach @ 7/2 BOG
…in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner…
This 2 yr old gelding is making just his fifth start, but comes here off the back of an LTO win 21 days ago, when landing a similar C6, 6f Nursery on Tapeta (Wolverhampton), when partnered by today’s jockey, Josephine Gordon, for the first time.
Josephine gets more than her fair share of winners here at Newcastle with a ratio better than 1 in 6 at 17.7% thanks to 26 winners from 147 rides, including 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) for 3.69pts (+30.8% ROI) on trainer James Bethell’s horses.
The horse/trainer was then of further interest to me, having appeared twice in my daily QT Report, under the loose titles of A/W Sprints and Newcastle A/W HC with James Bethell being a featured trainer on both angles, so let’s take a quick look at each in turn, shall we?
Starting with A/W Sprints…
Here we have J. Bethell + UK A/W Hcps + 5-6 f + Sub-9/1 + 2015-18 = 9/25 (36% SR) for 30.53pts (+122.1%) including the following of relevance today…
- 11-30 dslr : 8/21 (38.1%) for 28.02pts (+133.4%)
- Tapeta : 9/19 (47.4%) for 36.53pts (+192.3%)
- Sept-Feb : 8/14 (57.1%) for 36.64pts (+261.7%)
- 6f : 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.28pts (+69%)
- Newcastle : 4/10 (40%) for 21.11pts (+211.1%)
- LTO winners : 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.92pts (+84.5%)
- Josephine Gordon : 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.54pts (+384.7%)
- 2yr olds : 1/2 (50%) for 4.51pts (+225.5%)
- and Class 6 : also 1/2 (50%) for 4.51pts (+225.5%)
Please Note : Don’t add an odds filter into your Queries if you want future qualifiers to be flagged up, as SPs are only known after a race and can’t be predicted.
And the Newcastle A/W HC angle?
J. Bethell + 12/1 and shorter = 15/60 (25% SR) for 41.8pts (+69.7% ROI) with the following at play today…
- males : 12/43 (27.9%) for 32.5pts (+75.5%)
- evening/late afternoon meetings : 9/35 (25.7%) for 28.5pts (+81.4%)
- ran in last three weeks : 9/25 (36%) for 39.94pts (+159.7%)
- 5-7 f : 8/23 (34.8%) for 38.23pts (+166.2%)
- J Gordon : 4/10 (40%) for 5.69pts (+56.9%)
- and Class 6 : 2/10 (20%) for 8.29pts (+82.9%)
…from which…males racing over 5-7 furlongs in evening/late afternoon meetings with no more than three weeks rest are 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 10.41pts (+104.1% ROI) with Josephine Gordon having a 1 from 1 record having ridden Mudawwan to victory at 12/1 here in late September…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!