Stat of the Day, 19th December 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

2.00 Southwell : Tan @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 13/8 (Pulled hard tracking leader, effort over 1f out, faded final furlong but beaten by less than 1.75 lengths)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

5.05 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rich Approach @ 7/2 BOG

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…in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

This 2 yr old gelding is making just his fifth start, but comes here off the back of an LTO win 21 days ago, when landing a similar C6, 6f Nursery on Tapeta (Wolverhampton), when partnered by today’s jockey, Josephine Gordon, for the first time.

Josephine gets more than her fair share of winners here at Newcastle with a ratio better than 1 in 6 at 17.7% thanks to 26 winners from 147 rides, including 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) for 3.69pts (+30.8% ROI) on trainer James Bethell’s horses.

The horse/trainer was then of further interest to me, having appeared twice in my daily QT Report, under the loose titles of A/W Sprints and Newcastle A/W HC with James Bethell being a featured trainer on both angles, so let’s take a quick look at each in turn, shall we?

Starting with A/W Sprints…

Here we have J. Bethell + UK A/W Hcps + 5-6 f + Sub-9/1 + 2015-18 = 9/25 (36% SR) for 30.53pts (+122.1%) including the following of relevance today…

  • 11-30 dslr : 8/21 (38.1%) for 28.02pts (+133.4%)
  • Tapeta : 9/19 (47.4%) for 36.53pts (+192.3%)
  • Sept-Feb : 8/14 (57.1%) for 36.64pts (+261.7%)
  • 6f : 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.28pts (+69%)
  • Newcastle : 4/10 (40%) for 21.11pts (+211.1%)
  • LTO winners : 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.92pts (+84.5%)
  • Josephine Gordon : 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.54pts (+384.7%)
  • 2yr olds : 1/2 (50%) for 4.51pts (+225.5%)
  • and Class 6 : also 1/2 (50%) for 4.51pts (+225.5%)

Please Note : Don’t add an odds filter into your Queries if you want future qualifiers to be flagged up, as SPs are only known after a race and can’t be predicted.

And the Newcastle A/W HC angle?

J. Bethell + 12/1 and shorter = 15/60 (25% SR) for 41.8pts (+69.7% ROI) with the following at play today…

  • males : 12/43 (27.9%) for 32.5pts (+75.5%)
  • evening/late afternoon meetings : 9/35 (25.7%) for 28.5pts (+81.4%)
  • ran in last three weeks : 9/25 (36%) for 39.94pts (+159.7%)
  • 5-7 f : 8/23 (34.8%) for 38.23pts (+166.2%)
  • J Gordon : 4/10 (40%) for 5.69pts (+56.9%)
  • and Class 6 : 2/10 (20%) for 8.29pts (+82.9%)

…from which…males racing over 5-7 furlongs in evening/late afternoon meetings with no more than three weeks rest are 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 10.41pts (+104.1% ROI) with Josephine Gordon having a 1 from 1 record having ridden Mudawwan to victory at 12/1 here in late September…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Rich Approach @ 7/2 BOG, as offered by half a dozen or so firms at 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.05 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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