Stat of the Day, 20th December 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

5.05 Newcastle : Rich Approach @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 2/1 (Towards rear, ridden and headway approaching final furlong, kept on one pace)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

2.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Divine Call @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

…in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Fibresand worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

This 11 yr old gelding has been a winner on each of his last two visits to this venue, both in similar Class 6, 5f handicaps to today and both under today’s jockey Hollie Doyle, taking his record on this track to 3 wins from 3, so he should be happy enough here if nothing else!

He was flagged up on several reports I keep an eye on and in the interests of brevity, I’m going to give you just four of them today!

We should start with our trainer Charlie Wallis, who sadly is NOT one to follow blindly! He’s a month away from celebrating the fourth anniversary of his first runner from late January 2015 and his career stats to date are 44/494 (8.91% SR) for a level stakes loss of 127pts at betfair SP, or almost 26p from every pound wagered!

That said…1. his sub-8/1 A/W sprinters (ie 5-6f) are 23/85 (27.1% SR) for 54.1pts (+63.7% ROI), including…

  • in 2018 : 15/45 933.3%) for 42.9pts (+95.4%)
  • over 5f : 10/42 (23.8%) for 13pts (+30.9%)
  • over 5f in 2018 : 9/28 (32.1%) for 22.9pts (+81.9%)

…and then we have 2. his LTO winners are 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 16.5pts (+35.9% ROI), from which…

  • in 2018 : 5/20 (25%) for 5.83pts (+29.2%)
  • within 10 dslr : 9/17 (52.9%) for 32.4pts (+190.7%)
  • within 10 dslr at same class & distance as LTO : 5/9 (55.6%) for 21.13pts (+234.8%)
  • in 2018 within 10 dslr : 5/9 (55.6%) for 16.83pts (+187%)
  • in 2018 within 10 dslr at same class & distance as LTO : 2/4 (50%) for 8.86pts (+221.5%)

…we then find out that 3. Since the start of 2014, all Class 6, 5f sub-8/1 runners at the same class as LTO with a C&D win in the previous 10 days are 13 from 37 (35.1% SR) for 17.46pts (+47.2%) and these include those running as the same class, course and distance winning 11 of 33 (33.3%) for 12.68pts (+38.4%).

And finally for today, back to trainer Charlie Wallis, because 4. he is 7/35 (20% SR) for 23.6pts (+67.3% ROI) here at Southwell so far, including of relevance today…

  • Class 6 : 5/17 (29.4%) for 26.5pts (+155.9%)
  • 5f : 4/16 (25%) for 8.45pts (+52.8%)
  • 2018 : 4/10 (40%) for 14.45pts (+144.5%)
  • Class 6 in 2018 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 15.45pts (+171.7%)
  • Class 6, 5f, C&D : 4/8 (50%) for 16.45pts (+205.7%)
  • 5f in 2018 : 4/8 (50%) for 16.45pts (+205.7%)
  • Class 6, 5f, C&D in 2018 : 4/7 (57.1%) for 17.45pts (+249.3%)

…all pointing towards… a 1pt win bet on Divine Call @ 3/1 BOG, as was widely available at 6.00pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.50 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *