Stat of the Day, 21st December 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

2.50 Southwell : Divine Call @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 11/2 (In touch, pushed along halfway, ridden and no impression final furlong)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

1.10 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Deebaj @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7½f on Heavy ground worth £4094 to the winner… 

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was an easy 15 lengths winner when last seen 11 days ago in another Class 4 handicap hurdle on heavy ground and partnered by today’s jockey Joshua Moore. Yes, he’s up in weight and trip, but he could have won by much further that day as he had plenty in hand and he did win his only run at 2m6f.

Stat-wise he was of instant interest, because…since the start of 2013 in UK handicap hurdle races, horses priced shorter than 12/1 who won a heavy ground handicap hurdle LTO are 149 from 590 (25.3% SR) for 110.6pts (+18.7% ROI) with no filters in place other than the fact I’m not a big odds backer (I’m no fan of long losing runs). If you did want to introduce some filters, you might be interested to know that…

  • males : 126/486 (25.9%) for 90.1pts (+18.5%)
  • 6-25 dslr : 92/322 (28.6%) for 120.4pts (+37.4%)
  • won by 3L or more LTO : 94/294 (32%) for 137pts (+46.6%)
  • 5/6 yr olds : 75/259 (29%) for 73.4pts (+28.3%)
  • Class 4 : 69/228 (30.3%) for 89.3pts (+39.2%)
  • on heavy : 59/222 (26.6%) for 9.1pts (+4.1%) (heavy to heavy are clearly overbet)
  • at 2m5f to 3m : 38/155 (24.5%) for 46.1pts (+29.7%)
  • up by 2.5f to 5.5f : 30/127 (23.6%) for 38.7pts (+30.5%)
  • and in December : 21/63 (33.3%) for 15.4pts (+24.5%)

And a c.100 bet micro?

5-11 yr old males at Class 3 to 5 on Good to Soft or worse who won a heavy ground handicap hurdle by 3 lengths or more LTO 6-25 days earlier are 48/103 (46.6% SR) for 109.5pts (+106.3% ROI), including 20 winners from 40 (50%) for 34.1pts (+85.1%) on heavy ground.

In addition to the above…since the start of 2014, 4-6 yr old hcp hurdlers sired by Authorized are 17 from 83 (20.5% SR) for 26.3pts (+31.7% ROI) on ground deemed soft or worse and whilst that’;s a fairly small starting sample size, it does throw up some interesting/relevant angles for today…

  • 11-45 dslr : 14/56 925%) for 44.4pts (+79.3%)
  • sub-9/1 : 15/50 (30%) for 27.4pts (+54.8%)
  • Class 4 : 11/30 (36.7%) for 52.7pts (+175.6%)
  • LTO winners : 8/20 (40%) for 12.1pts (+60.5%)
  • at 2m7.5f to 3m2f : 7/18 (38.9%) for 23pts (+127.6%)
  • up by 2f to 6f : 6/16 (37.5%) for 36.1pts (+225.7%)
  • won by 10L or more LTO : 7/14 950%) for 22.2pts (+158.9%)
  • ran on heavy LTO : 6/14 (42.9%) for 32.7pts  (+233.6%)
  • and in 2018 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.9pts (+120.4%)

…and from the above, Class 4/5 priced below 9/1, 6-45 dslr are 12/23 (52.2% SR) for 41.9pts (+182.2% ROI), including LTO winners at 5/8 (62.5%) for 11.5pts (+144.1%)…

…steering us towards… a 1pt win bet on Deebaj @ 11/4 BOG, as was widely available at 6.10pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.10 Uttoxeter

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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