Stat of the Day, 22nd December 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

1.10 Uttoxeter : Deebaj @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up towards rear on outside, not fluent 8th and pushed along, headway before 3 out, close 3rd when mistake last, stayed on, but beaten by a neck and a nose)

Satruday’s pick runs in the…

1.35 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Ontopoftheworld @ 7/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft ground worth £9747 to the winner… 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding has been in sparkling form this year, achieving a top 3 finish in each of his last seven runs, including four wins!

He’s by Desert King, whose NH runners are 13 from 52 (25% SR) for 22.4pts (+43% ROI) over trips of 2m1f and shorter since the start of 2017.

And he’s trained by Peter Bowen, whose chasers are 88 from 408 (21.6% SR) for 125.6pts (+30.8% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2016, which is a remarkable record and includes of relevance here…

  • males : 83/386 (21.5%) for 125.3pts (+32.5%)
  • at 9/4 to 10/1 : 64/262 (24.4%) for 167.3pts (+63.9%)
  • males at 9/4 to 10/1 : 62/250 (25%) for 163.2pts (65.3%)
  • 11-20 dslr : 38/112 (33.9%) for 116pts (+103.6%)
  • males at 9/4 to 10/1 at 11-20 dslr : 27/67 (40.3%) for 85.05pts (+126.9%)
  • on Soft : 18/80 (22.5%) for 14.7pts (+18.4%)
  • males at 9/4 to 10/1 on Soft : 11/41 (26.8%) for 33.6pts (+81.9%)
  • and males at 9/4 to 10/1 on Soft at 11-20 dslr : 4/10 (40%) for 8.97pts (+89.7%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Ontopoftheworld @ 7/1 BOG, as was available from Bet365, SkyBet & BetVictor at 6.50pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.35 Haydock

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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