Stat of the Day, 26th December 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

1.35 Haydock : Ontopoftheworld @ 7/1 BOG 7th at 9/1 (Led until 1st, led and not fluent next, headed 8th, mistake 3 out, weakened next)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

1.05 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 4/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £4787 to the winner… 

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Why?

Our horse…

…is a 4yr old gelding who won over course and distance LTO at a higher grade 11 days ago and now comes here with a record that includes making the frame in 9 of 19 runs (47.4%) on this track, including winning four times (21% SR).

On the A/W in general, he has 5 wins and 6 places from 15 runs this year, he has 4 wins and 3 places from 11 races at this 7f trip, including 3 wins and a place from 7 efforts over course and distance and he has four wins and three places from the 8 contests that he was sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter.

Our trainer…

…is David Loughnane, whose 30-day record stands at 5 wins from 17 (29.4% SR) for 29.84pts (+175.9% ROI) profit and this includes…

  • on Tapeta : 5/11 (45.5%) for 35.84pts (+325.8%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 3/8 (37.5%) for 28.42pts (+355.3%)
  • and over 7f on Tapeta : 3/5 (60%) for 22.76pts (+455.1%)

Our jockey…

…Jason Watson has won 11 of 46 (23.9% SR) races here at Wolverhampton in the past nine months, generating level stakes profits of 37pts at an ROI of 80.4%, including…

  • at 5f to 8.5f : 11/38 (28.9%) for 45pts (+118.4%)
  • in hcps : 7/35 (20%) for 32.4pts (+92.4%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter : 10/27 (37%) for 16pts (+59.3%)
  • and at Class 5 : 6/17 (35.3%) for 8pts (+47%)

And our horse’s sire…

…is Art Connoisseur, whose offspring are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 42.9pts (+186.4% ROI) over 6/7 furlongs on Tapeta over the last two years, including…

  • in hcps : 6/22 (27.3%) for 43.9pts (+199.5%) – all males
  • at Wolves : 5/17 (29.4%) for 38.8pts (+228.1%) – all male handicappers
  • 4 yr olds are 3/7 (42.9%) for 20.7pts (+295%) – all males in Wolves hcps
  • and Class 5 male handicappers here at Wolves are 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 10.4pts (+173.2%)

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 4/1 BOG, as was available from pretty much everyone at 12.35am on Wednesday morning, but Bet365 were offering half a point more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.05 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m out/away from my PC on Boxing Day afternoon, so Thursday’s pick will appear later than usual on Wednesday night.

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