Stat of the Day, 27th December 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

1.05 Wolverhampton : Critical Thinking @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Towards rear, ridden over 2f out, stayed on well final furlong)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

2.45 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sheneededtherun @ 7/2 BOG

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…in a 7-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Soft ground worth £4938 to the winner…  

Why?

This 8 yr old mare was a runner-up last time out over 3m1.5f at Class 2 on soft ground 12 days ago and now running off the same mark but over slightly shorter and down a couple of grades, you’d have to expect her to be in with a good chance if she posts a similar effort.

She the only previous course winner in this field today, boasting a perfect 2 from 2 record at this venue, including winning this very contest last year.

In fact, her trainer, Michael Scudamore, has won this race for the last two years and now seeks a hat-trick to improve his already decent Wetherby record of 6 winners from 20 (30% SR) for profits of 19.16pts (+95.8% ROI) over the last three years, which includes…

  • handicappers at 4/10 (40%) for 264.5pts (+264.5%)
  • chasers at 4/8 (50%) for 28.45pts (+355.7%)
  • and handicap chasers at 4/7 (57.1%) for 29.45pts (+420.7%)

More generally (and giving us a bigger sample size to work with!), blindly backing Michael’s handicap chasers has been a profitable venture in 7 of the last 8 years (2014 the only blot on the record) and had you been on all of them, you’d be looking at 65 winners from 377 (17.2% SR) for 141.5pts (+37.5% ROI) profits.

These are excellent numbers, but with the usual caveats about blind backing not being for everyone, there are numerous profitable angles to be drawn from the above, here are “just” ten…

  • October to March : 51/223 (22.9%) for 186.66pts (+83.7%)
  • 6-8 yr olds : 51/208 (24.5%) for 196.04pts (+94.3%)
  • over 3m and beyond : 31/177 (17.5%) for 130.53pts (+73.7%)
  • sub-6/1 shots : 46/143 (32.2%) for 58.67pts (+41%)
  • Class 4 : 25/126 (19.8%) for 40.32pts (+32%)
  • females : 24/108 (22.2%) for 43.03pts (+39.9%)
  • on Soft : 18/92 (19.6%) for 68.22pts (+74.2%)
  • Class droppers : 9/65 (13.8%) for 22.25pts (+34.2%)
  • female only races : 8/34 (23.5%) for 20.14pts (+59.2%)
  • and at Wetherby : 4/9 (44.4%) for 27.45pts (+305%)

Building a composite from the above is possible, but obviously massively dilutes the sample size, but using the first four criteria from above ie month/age/distance/odds, you could go with…

…Oct-Mar, 6-8yo, 2m7f-3m7f, Evs-6/1 for 20/44 (45.5% SR) for 50.5pts (+114.7% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Sheneededtherun @ 7/2 BOG, as was available from Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & 888Sport at 11.00pm on Wednesday night. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.45 Wetherby

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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