Stat of the Day, 28th December 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

2.45 Wetherby : Sheneededtherun @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Held up in rear, headway 5 out, effort after 3 out, no impression, weakened before last)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

2.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Wotadoll @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on polytrack worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old filly carries bottom weight here, receiving 3 to 13lbs from her nine rivals despite arriving here in decent nick having won two of her last three starts, including a course and distance win on her only previous run on this track two races ago.

She wasn’t beaten by far last time out when running at a higher grade off a mark 3lbs higher than today, so the drop in both class and weight should help her here.

Trainer Dean Ivory’s handicap class droppers are 29/166 (17.5% SR) for 304.1pts (+183.2% ROI) over the last three years and those figures include…

  • dropping 1 class : 26/146 (17.8%) for 302.1pts (+206.9%)
  • within 45 days of last run : 22/118 (18.6%) for 177.3pts (+150.2%)
  • ran at Class 4 LTO : 7/47 (14.9%) for 119.7pts (+254.6%)
  • at 6/4 to 6/1 : 17/46 (37%) for 40.3pts (+87.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 7/43 (16.3%) for 123.7pts (+287.6%)

In addition to the above, Dean’s Lingfield A/W handicappers are 25/165 (15.2% SR) for 49.7pts (+30.1% ROI) backed blindly over the last six years and these include…

  • at 6/4 to 10/1 : 23/98 (23.5%) for 65.5pts (66.9%)
  • in November/December : 9/59 (15.3%) for 20.7pts (+35%)
  • at Class 5 : 10/53 (18.9%) for 37pts (+69.9%)
  • 4yr olds are 7/42 (16.6%) for 11.8pts (+28.1%)
  • and at 6-15 days after their last run : 7/37 (18.9%) for 16.1pts (+43.4%)

…and from the above, Class 5 runners at 6/4 to 10/1 in November/December are 5/11 (45.5% SR) for 30pts (+272.3% ROI), including 4yrs old at 3/4 (75%) for 21.5pts (+536.2%)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Wotadoll @ 7/2 BOG, as was available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 5.20pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.20 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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