Stat of the Day, 29th December 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

2.20 Lingfield : Wotadoll @ 7/2 BOG 9th at 3/1 (Raced wide in touch, ridden and no impression over 2f out, soon weakened)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

12.50 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Alizee de Janeiro @ 7/2 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m2f on Good ground worth £4289 to the winner…  

Why?

This 8 yr old mare has won two of her last three outings, including an LTO success seven weeks ago and has won 3 times and made the frame a further four times from nine visits to Kelso and has a record of 2 wins and a place from five runs with today’s jockey, Derek Fox.

Trainer Lucinda Russell’s Kelso handicap hurdlers are 11 from 68 (16.2% SR) for 25.33pts (+37.3% ROI) over the last four years and these include…

  • 7/44 (15.9%) for 26.24pts (+59.6%) over trips of 2m to 2m5f
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 40pts (+142.8%) racing 26 to 75 days after their last run
  • 3/19 (15.8%) for 24.36pts (+128.2%) in December/January
  • 4/22 (18.2%) for 12.26pts (+55.7%) on Good ground
  • and 7/17 (41.2%) for 13.54pts (+79.7%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter.

This mare is a “daughter” of Network, whose offspring are 37/153 (24.2% SR) for 63.68pts (+41.6% ROI) ovdr 2m1f to 2m4f over the last two years, from which…

  • those rested for a month or linger are 20/67 (29.9%) for 81.44pts (+121.6%)
  • hurdlers are 14/58 (24.1%) for 26.7pts (+46%)
  • Class 4 runners are 11/46 (23.9%) for 12.1pts (+26.3%)
  • LTO winners are 9/25 (36%) for 0.57pts (+2.28%)
  • females are 8/22 (36.4%) for 36.6pts (+166.3%)
  • and 8/9 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 22.24pts (+111.2%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Alizee de Janeiro @ 7/2 BOG, as was available from Betbright & SkyBet at 6.20pm on Friday evening, but you could get another half a point from Coral. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 12.50 Kelso

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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