Stat of the Day, 31st December 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

12.50 Kelso : Alizee de Janeiro @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Held up towards rear, headway 3 out, went 2nd next, led between last 2, ridden before last, forged clear on flat to win by 9 lengths)

Monday’s last pick of the year runs in the…

1.40 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gonnabegood @ 11/2 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m on Soft (heavy in places) ground worth £4614 to the winner…  

Why?

A 7yr old gelding who has been running consistently well over the last 13 months or so, winning 4 and placing a further twice from just nine outings, including an LTO win over 2m7.5f on heavy ground under today’s jockey Matt Griffiths 24 days ago.

Conditions look testing today, but our lad looks well suited to them as to date, his record includes…

• 4 wins, 2 places from 10 under Matt Griffiths
• 4w, 2pl from 9 at sub-7/1 odds
• 3w, 1pl from 7 in 2018
• 3w, 2pl from 6 at 4/1 or shorter
• 3w, 1pl from 6 in fields of 8-11 runners
• 2w, 1pl from 6 on soft
• 2w from 4 over the 3m trip
• 1w from 2 on heavy
• and 1 from 1 in a visor

In addition to the above, this horse popped up three times on my Query Tool report under my highly-imaginatively titled angles C4/5 hcp chasers, NH softies & Uttox HC chasers!

It doesn’t take a genius to work out what those angles are, but let’s see why they were flagged up, starting with…

…C 4/5 Hcp Chasers…

Trainer Jeremy Scott + C 4/5 hcp chasers + 2013-18 = 53/252 (21%) for 128.6pts (+51% ROI) backed blindly and these include…

• at Class 4 : 39/198 (19.7%) for 86.8pts (+43.9%)
• over 2m7.5f to 3m0.5f : 12/62 (19.4%) for 26.3pts (+42.4%)
• and here at Uttoxeter : 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.6pts (+80%)

…and then we have NH Softies…

Jeremy’s NH handicappers on soft or worse are 20/101 (19.8% SR) for 18.5pts (+18.3% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2017 and with today’s race in mind, they include…

• at evens to 13/2 : 17/54 (31.5%) for 21.9pts (+40.6%)
• over 2m4.5f to 3m0.5f : 13/45 (28.9%) for 39.9pts (+88.7%)
• and at evens to 13/2 over 2m6f to 3m1.5f : 11/24 (45.8%) for 22.5pts (+93.8%)

…and finally for today, the Uttox HC chasers…

Jeremy Scott + Uttoxeter HC Chasers at 10/1 or shorter = 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 22.6pts (+133% ROI) over the last 5 years, including…

• Class 4 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 11.7pts (+77.9%)
• Matt Griffiths : 5/10 (50%) for 24.7pts (+247%)
• 2m6.5f to 3m : 5/10 (50%) for 24.5pts (+245%)
• 21-45 dslr : 3/10 (30%) for 5.58pts (+55.8%)
• and 7/8 yr olds are 5/9 (55.6%) for 25.5pts (+283.4%)

…which all steers us towards… a 1pt win bet on Gonnabegood @ 11/2 BOG, as was available from Betfair & Hills at 6.40pm on Sunday evening, but you could get another half a point from Paddy Power. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.40 Uttoxeter

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!