Stat of the Day, 1st January 2019

Monday’s Pick was…

1.40 Uttoxeter : Gonnabegood @ 11/2 BOG PU at 11/4 (Prominent, driven 14th, soon beaten, pulled up before 2 out)

Tuesday’s first pick of the year runs in the…

2.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £19494 to the winner…


Well, as it’s New Year’s Eve/Day depending on when/if you’re reading this, I’m going to keep it brief as we’ve all more important things to do!

So, we have an in-form now 4yr old filly who has won four races on the bounce since finishing as a runner up in a grade 3 event in Ireland last year, including winning a Listed event by some 23 lengths at Aintree last time out 24 days ago.

That win took her record for her new trainer to 3 from 3 and today’s jockey Brian Hughes was on board for all three rides.

And that new trainer?

…is Keith Dalgleish, whose hurdlers priced at 10/1 and shorter are 9 from 29 (31% SR) for 11.7pts (+40.3% ROI) profit, including of relevance today…

  • on Good ground : 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.57pts (+54.1%)
  • in handicaps : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.95pts (+64%)
  • in December/January : 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.91pts (+140.9%)
  • 3/4 yr olds are 4/10 (40%) for 18.3pts (+183%)
  • 16-45 dslr : 6/15 (40%) for 15.1pts (+100.7%)
  • over this 1m7½f course and distance : 2/7 (28.6%) for 5.82pts (+83.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 3.51pts (+87.8%)

…and this simple approach gives us… a 1pt win bet on Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG, as was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Coral & Hills at 7.25pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.15 Musselburgh

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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