Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2019

Tuesday’s Pick was…

2.15 Musselburgh : Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, challenged inside 3 out, every chance when short of room approaching next, led last, headed flat, kept on)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

6.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chosen World @ 7/2 BOG

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…in a 7-runner, Class 5, Handicap over 7f  worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

Matt stepping in for Chris for one day only, and I’m taking a chance in what is a very competitive race. The horse in question is Chosen World, a winner of his last two over course and distance, so no worries on that score. He’s up four for his most recent win but stays in Class 5 and has a progressive look to his profile (just 11 career starts to date). But what about the stats?

His dad, Intikhab, has a fine record with handicap sprinters. Specifically, in the last two years, he’s 16/103 (16 further places) for +36.38 (AE 1.41).

With All Weather sprint handicappers, he’s 7/38 (+12.38, AE 1.43) and with Newcastle sprint handicappers he’s three from nine, three further places (+17.25, AE 2.03)

Of course, that final stat is heavily influenced by Chosen World’s two recent CD victories; so let’s add some further ballast to the selection’s case:

Trainer Julie Camacho and jockey Conor McGovern are both solid exponents of their craft and, when teaming up here in the past year, they’ve shared success on four occasions (from 15 starts, +12.25, AE 2.19).

Camacho is adept at racking up sequences with horses, as her last time out strike rate attests. She’s won 8 from 38 with LTO winners in the last two years (+10.00, AE 1.14) and she also has a positive expectation with sprinters (40/245 in the last 2 years, +2.75, AE 1.17). In all weather sprints, she’s 16/101 (+20.25, AE 1.18). And her Newcastle record in the past year is 8/41 (+13/25, AE 1.21).

To the horse. Chosen World is two from four over the course and two from three over course and distance, Newcastle’s straight seven furlongs being something of a specialist piste. And he’s unbeaten in two since the deployment of cheek pieces; that kit is unsurprisingly retained here.

Despite the tight look to this race, then, the above conspires to give us…

a 1pt win bet on Chosen World @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Skybet, Unibet & Hills (4/1 with Betbright if you can get it) at 7.10pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.15 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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