Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2019

Wednesday’s Pick was…

6.15 Newcastle : Chosen World @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, effort over 2f out, ridden and lost place over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

1.45 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Sliding Doors @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+  Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Good To Soft worth £6563 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is trained by Ian Williams and my starting point today is the simple fact that over the last two years, blindly backing Ian’s NH runners has been a profitable venture with 70 winners from 472 runners (14.8% SR) producing profits of 190pts at a cracking ROI of some 40.3%.

Of those 472 runners…

  • hurdlers are 47/311 (15.1%) for 242.5pts (+78%)
  • over trips of 2m4f to 3m0.5f : 37/203 (18.2%) for 62.6pts (+30.8%)
  • hurdlers over trips of 2m4f to 3m0.5f : 21/124 (16.9%) for 64.2pts (+51.7%)
  • whilst those running on good to soft are 15/116 (12.9%) for 206.9pts (+178.3%)

Aside from those excellent general recent stats, Ian’s record here at Ludlow has been consistently good for several years now and an angle I like is the one that shows that the market is a decent judge of his runners, as over the last 6 years those sent off at odds of 7/1 or shorter have won 14 of 41 (34.2% SR) for 16.7pts (+40.7% ROI) profit, from which…

  • males : 13/37 (35.1%) for 18.3pts (+49.4%)
  • hurdlers : 10/24 (41.7%) for 14pts (+58.2%)
  • handicappers : 7/28 (25%) for 7.56pts (+27%)
  • 15-49 dslr : 10/22 (45.5%) for 22.3pts (+101.1%)
  • hcp hurdlers : 4/13 (30.8%) for 6.68pts (+51.4%)
  • 6 yr olds : 4/10 (40%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%)
  • and male hcp hurdlers : 3/10 (30%) for 7.26pts (+72.6%)

…pointing to a 1pt win bet on Sliding Doors @ 7/2 BOG as was available from at least a dozen firms at 5.10pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.45 Ludlow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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