Stat of the Day, 4th January 2019

Thursday’s Pick was…

1.45 Ludlow : Sliding Doors @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up, not fluent 2nd, closed 4th, challenged 3 out, every chance flat, stayed on, just held by neck, lacking the will to go past the leader)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

5.20 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Tigerfish @ 5/1 or 11/2 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m4f on polytrack worth £3105 to the winner… 

Why?

This 5 yr old mare was a winner last time out 30 days ago over this trip at this class under today’s jockey Hollie Doyle and is the only runner in this contest with a recent victory.

Over the last two years, she has been sent off 10 times in the 11/4 to 6/1 odds range in handicaps, winning 5 times (50% SR) for 19.93pts (+199.3% ROI) profit, from which…

  • at Class 6 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 14.42pts (+160.2%)
  • on the A/W : 3/6 (50%) for 13.03pts (+217.1%)
  • under Hollie Doyle : 3/5 (60%) for 14.03pts (+280.6%)
  • after a win LTO : 2/3 (60.6%) for 7.89pts (+263.1%)
  • and over this 1m4f trip : 1/1 (10)%) for 6.37pts (+637%)

Her trainer William Stone is 7/25 (28% SR) for 14.83pts (+59.3% ROI) with LTO winners sent off on the 11/4 to 7/1 odds range since 2011 and they include of relevance today…

  • 10-30 dslr : 7/20 (35%) for 19.83pts (+99.2%)
  • on the A/W : 5/19 (26.3%) for 10.79pts (+56.8%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/17 (29.4%) for 9.53pts (+56%)
  • October-February : 6/14 (42.9%) for 20.1pts (+143.5%)
  • 2017/18 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 15.2pts (+168.9%)
  • with Hollie Doyle : 2/4 (50%) for 10.15pts (+253.8%)
  • and here at Kempton : 1/1 (100%) for 4.94pts (+494%)

…whilst from the above… A/W + Class 6 + Jan/Feb + 10-30dslr = 4/8 (50% SR) for 12.78pts (+159.7% ROI) and they include Tigerfish’s win back in February 2017 under Hollie Doyle, which leads us nicely to my final piece of relevant data, which tells us that…

…Doyle + Stone + C5-7 A/W hcps over 7-12 f = 10/40 (25% SR) for 42.65pts (+106.6% ROI)…

…giving us a 1pt win bet on Tigerfish @ 5/1 or 11/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.40pm on Thursday evening (I’ll obviously use 5/1 in my results). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.20 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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