Stat of the Day, 5th January 2019

Friday’s Pick was…

5.20 Kempton : Tigerfish @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, bumped over 6f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

3.35 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m on Soft ground worth £15640 to the winner… 

Why?

Just 3 runs in the UK so far for this 5 yr old gelding, but never out of of the first three home in those contests. Third in each of his first two efforts, he got off the mark in a 2m hurdle on heavy ground at Ffos Las 19 days ago, having comfortably made all and winning with ease by seven lengths, but the margin of victory could have been far more if he’d been pushed.

His trainer, Jane Williams, is 7 from 24 (29.2% SR) for 32.2pts (+134.3% ROI) over the last 12 weeks and although that’s a fairly small sample size, there are some interesting/relevant angles at play today as those runners include…

  • males : 7/21 (33.3%) for 35.2pts (+167.8%)
  • hurdlers : 7/18 (38.9%) for 38.2pts (+212.4%)
  • prizes of 4k to 17k : 7/15 (46.7%) for 41.2pts (+274.9%)
  • ridden by Lizzie Kelly : 3/14 (21.4%) for 20pts (+143%)
  • at 7/1 or shorter : 6/13 (46.2%) for 13.5pts (+103.8%)
  • handicappers : 3/7 (42.9%) for 13.2pts (+188.5%)
  • within 25 dslr : 3/5 (60%) for 1.89pts (+37.8%)
  • over this 2m trip : 3/4 (75%) for 29.5pts (+736.7%)
  • and LTO winners : 2/4 (50%) for 7.6pts (+190%)

…from which… male hurdlers priced at 7/1 and shorter aiming for prizes of £4k to £17k are 6/8 (75% SR) for 18.5pts (+231.2% ROI) including that LTO win by Monsieur Lecoq at odds of 4/6, which leads me nicely to another angle of note for today ie in UK handicap hurdles over the last four years, horses who were sent off at odds on prices and won LTO by more than one length in the previous 25 days are 59/205 (28.8% SR) for 46.7pts (+22.8% ROI) and these include…

  • for prizes up to £17k : 53/161 (32.9%) for 35.4pts (+22%)
  • up in class : 30/115 (26.1%) for 49pts (+42.6%)
  • over 1m7.5f to 2m1f : 20/63 (31.8%) for 34.4pts (+54.6%)
  • on soft ground : 11/40 (27.5%) for 15pts (+37.5%)

…from which… those racing over 1m7.5f to 2m1f stepping up 1 or 2 classes for a prize of £4k to £17k are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 14.86pts (+92.9% ROI), including 3 winners from 4 (75%) for 14.05pts (+351.2%) on soft ground…

…giving us a 1pt win bet on Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 5.05pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.35 Sandown

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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