Saturday’s Pick was…
3.35 Sandown : Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 3rd, tracked leading pair, 2nd again after 3 out, led travelling well approaching next, came clear before last, won easily by 9 lengths)
Monday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG
…in a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner…
This 4 yr old filly was third over this course and distance just 6 days ago and would certainly have fared better but for a mistake at the last. A better jumping display under the same jockey off the same mark today should be enough for her to at least be in the mix on the run-in.
Her trainer, Jim Goldie, is 11 from 69 (15.9% SR) for 21.07pts (+30.5% ROI) with sub-12/1 Musselburgh handicap hurdlers since 2008 and to ensure we’re not relying on old data, we’ll focus on those from 2013 onwards who are 7/40 (17.5% SR) for 18.63pts (+46.6% ROI).
And of those 40…
- those who raced in the previous 45 days are 6/36 (16.6%) for 17.82pts (+49.5%)
- those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/12 (25%) for 13.16pts (+109.7%)
- top 3 finish LTO in the previous 45 days = 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.16pts (+128.8%)
- those ridden by Callum Bewley : 2/9 (22.2%) for 7.28pts (+80.9%)
- Bewley + top 3 LTO = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.28pts (+442.6%), with all three having raced in the previous 45 days.
Also, over the last two years, Jim Goldie’s handicappers turned back out after just 4 to 10 days rest are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 253.2pts (+127.2% ROI), from which…
- 3-5 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 76pts (+72.3%)
- Same OR as LTO : 16/101 (15.8%) for 209.3pts (+207.3%)
- Same Class as LTO : 19/100 (19%) for 233.6pts (+233.6%)
- Within o.5f of LTO trip : 18/98 (18.4%) for 110.2pts (+112.4%)
- Females are 14/69 (20.3%) for 102.8pts (+148.9%)
- Same jockey as LTO : 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.6%)
- Class 4 : 6/43 (14%) for 122.8pts (+285.5%)
- at Musselburgh : 4/16 (25%) for 3.6pts (+14.4%)
- and 3-5 yr old females at the same OR, class and distance as LTO are 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.44pts (+182.7%)
…giving us a 1pt win bet on Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!