Stat of the Day, 8th January 2019

Monday’s Pick was…

2.25 Musselburgh : Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Close up, ridden and headway approaching last, stayed on towards finish, but beaten by 1.75 lengths)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

2.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 6-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f on Soft ground worth £3509 to the winner… 

Why?

OK, if I’m honest, the datasets I’m using today aren’t the biggest sample sizes I’ve given you, but I felt that this horse was overpriced, considering there must be some some doubts about the odds-on favourite’s jumping after a heavy fall last time out as it remains to be seen if that will have affected him in any way.

Our boy, on the other hand, is rock solid and consistent if not exactly prolific and with 5 places from his last seven runs, I expect him to be there or thereabouts in the closing stages once more. He has a win and 2 places from 4 runs here at Ayr and was only beaten by half a length two starts ago when collared late on in a Class 2 contest, so this represents a major drop back down in quality.

As I said, he doesn’t win often enough, but all three career wins have involved the combination of 2m-2m1.5f, Class 4/5, mud, Jan-March and no more than 4 weeks rest. All those are present today and when you combine those factors, his career record of 3 from 33 becomes 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 14.87pts (+371.9% ROI) with the loss being a third placed finish!

Today’s jockey, Ross Chapman, is 2 from 3 of those four races above and he was 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 30.6pts (+95.6% ROI) over jumps here at Ayr last year, including 8/27 (29.6%) for 23.7pts in handicaps and 3/12 925%) for 4.22pts (+35.2%) over the larger obstacles.

Our trainer, Lisa Harrison, is 5 from 27 (18.5% SR) for 8.88pts (+32.9% ROI) here at Ayr over the last three years from which, her handicap chasers sent off shorter than 8/1 are 4/7 (57.1%) for 20.94pts (+299.1%) with all 7 being males racing after less than a month’s rest, including winning 3 from 3 (100%) for 17.16pts (+571.9%) in January.

And as we’ve looked at horse, jockey and trainer, I might as well add a note about the sire, Scorpion, because his 5-8 yr old offspring are 11 from 40 (27.5% SR) for 28.4pts (+71% ROI) in handicap jumps races over 2m to 2m3f on soft ground or worse during the last three years. And as SotD just wouldn’t be SotD without at least one statistical breakdown, those 40 Scorpion progeny are…

  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 35.6pts (+122.6%) after 6-45 days off the track
  • 3/12 (25%) for 16.08pts (+134%) over fences
  • 4/10 (40%) for 16.87pts (+168.7%) competing for less than £4,000
  • 3/4 (75%) for 18.11pts (+452.9%) in January
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.03pts (+267.8%) at Class 5

…giving us a 1pt win be on Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.10pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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