Stat of the Day, 10th January 2019

Wednesday’s Pick was…

5.45 Kempton : Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Held up, pushed along 2f out, stayed on final furlong, not trouble leaders)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

12.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Azari @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m4f on fibresand worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a course and distance winner under today’s jockey Ryan Rossa (who has a good record at this track and also fares well for this yard) and although he’s up 3lbs to a mark of 73, he’s still expected to go well again today.

After all, it’s not too long ago that he was winning at Class 3 off a mark of 92 and was running off 93 less than a year ago. He initially caught my eye because he’s on the Geegeez Shortlist report, which highlighted that he’s 2 from 6 (inc 1/1 here at Southwell) on standard A/W, he has 3 wins and 2 places from 11 over this 1m4f trip (1/1 over C&D) and that he’s 2 from 4 at Class 5/6. Throw in the fact that he has 3 wins and a place from 10 runs after a break of 3 to 6 weeks and you’ve got a good set of conditions to run in.

However, the real reason I was keen to back him was because he’s conceding at least 5lbs to all six rivals, which might make you think I’ve lost the plot as many see this as a negative, but over the last 5 years in Class 5 handicaps over 5f to 1m6f on the A/W here at Southwell, clear top weights are 56/236 (23.7% SR) for 95.1pts (+40.3% ROI) backed blindly!

And of those 236 top weights…

  • those competing for less than £4k are 55/226 (24.3%) for 103.3pts (+45.7%)
  • males are 46/192 (24%) for 107.9pts (+56.2%)
  • at the same class as LTO : 39/142 (27.5%) for 33.5pts (+23.6%)
  • those racing off a mark of 73-77 are 31/121 (25.6%) for 107pts (+88.4%)
  • same trip as LTO : 29/108 (26.9%) for 33.4pts (+30.9%)
  • last 2 yrs : 19/90 (21.1%) for 83.9pts (+93.2%)
  • 6-8 yr olds : 17/76 (22.4%) for 106.2pts (+139.7%)
  • LTO winners are 30/65 (46.2%) for 31.7pts (+48.8%)
  • in January : 14/59 (23.7%) for 46.8pts (+79.3%)
  • same C&D as LTO : 12/49 (24.5%) for 4.55pts (+9.3%)
  • and over this 1m4f C&D : 12/43 (27.9%) for 122.3pts (+284.5%)

…giving us a 1pt win bet on Azari @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.05pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 12.45 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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