Stat of the Day, 14th January 2019

Saturday’s Pick was…

6.30 Newcastle : Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (Held up in rear, headway over 1f out, pushed along to lead inside final furlong, idled towards finish, just held on by a short head)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

4.00 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m1½f on Good To Soft ground worth £3119 to the winner…


This 9 yr old gelding is another one who’s hardly prolific, having not won a race in just over a year, but since moving to Chris Gordon’s yard he has raced 3 times (all here at Fontwell and all under today’s jockey Tom Cannon) and has made the frame twice : once over fences and once over hurdles.

He now runs off a lower mark than his last win (at Ayr back in Jan ’18) and now seeks to improve his handler’s already decent record at this venue, particularly in handicap hurdle contests where Chris’s runners are 38/222 (17.1% SR) for 221.3pts profit at an ROI of 99.7% from blindly backing them since 2010. Of course, that approach isn’t for everyone, but it produce several interesting/profitable angles including…

  • 5-9 yr olds : 37/202 (18.3%) for 234.8pts (+116.3%)
  • males : 30/173 (17.3%) for 198.9pts (+115%)
  • at 6/4 to 10/1 : 28/140 920%) for 40.3pts (+28.8%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 29/132 (22%) for 189.8pts (+143.8%)
  • ridden by Tom Cannon : 25/127 (19.7%) for 39.5pts (+84.9%)
  • off a mark of 90-110 : 24/125 (19.2%) for 221.1pts (+176.9%)
  • Class 5 : 19/104 (18.3%) for 85.4pts (+82.1%)
  • at 2m1½f to 2m2½f : 7/56 (12.5%) for 30.2pts (+53.9%)
  • and over the last 5 years at 6/4 to 5/1 : 13/43 (30.2%) for 13pts (+30.2%)

…and from the above… 5-9yo males @ 6/4-9/1 @ 6-20 dslr like today’s runner = 13/37 (35.1% SR) for 44.5pts (+120.3% ROI), from which…

  • Tom Cannon is 11/30 (36.7%) for 44.5pts (+148.3%)
  • OR 90-110 = 7/19 (36.8%) for 24.2pts (+127.3%)
  • Class 5 = 5/16 (31.25%) for 22.7pts (+141.7%)
  • Tom Cannon + OR 90-110 = 6/16 (37.5%) for 24.6pts (+153.7%)
  • Tom Cannon + Class 5 = 5/12 (41.7%) for 26.7pts (+222.3%)
  • Class 5 + OR 90-110 = 2/8 (25%) for 2.46pts (+30.7%)
  • and Tom Cannon + OR 90-110 + Class 5 = 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.46pts (+74.3%)

…giving us a 1pt win bet on Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday evening with plenty of 4/1 BOG offered elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 4.00 Fontwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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