Monday’s Pick was…
4.00 Fontwell : Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 (Chased leaders, 2nd before 4 out, led before next, driven out)
Tuesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG
…in a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner…
A little shorter in price than I normally aim at, but only five runners are set to go to post and this one comes here off the back of a win at Ayr on soft ground 13 days ago. Now running at the same class and trip off the same mark (105) and under the same jockey (Derek Fox), I see no reason why he wouldn’t be involved in the shake-up once again.
His record in handicap chases stands at 6 from 29 (20.7% SR) for 9.78pts (+33.7% ROI) profit and here are some of the ways (all relevant today), he got those wins…
- all 6 came from 24 (25%) runs wearing a tongue tie for 14.78pts (+61.6%)
- 5/19 (26.3%) for 17.11pts (+90.1%) off a mark (OR) greater than 95
- 4/13 (30.8%) for 15.16pts (+116.6%) after less than 3 weeks rest
- 4/20 (20%) for 8.08pts (+40.4%) at Class 4
- 3/5 (60%) for 3.42pts (+68.4%) when sent off as favourite
- 3/11 (27.3%) for 2.28pts (+20.7%) under Derek Fox
- 2/2 (100%) for 15.47pts (+773.5%) on Good to Soft ground
- and 2/10 920%) for 1.64pts (+16.4%) over this 2m½f trip
In addition to these stats, his form in 5 runs here at Newcastle reads 22221 and from the above… at Class 4 off a mark north of 95 wearing a tongue tie with less than 3 weeks rest = 2 from 4 (50% SR) for 13.47pts (+336.% ROI).
Over the last 9 months, his trainer Lucinda Russell has had 6 winners from 16 (37.5% SR) on the NH track here at Newcastle and these have generated 11.64pts profit at an ROI of 72.8%, including the following of note today…
- in handicaps : 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.99pts (+78.5%)
- males : 5/13 (38.5%) for 12.03pts (+92.5%)
- prizes of £4k-£8k : 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.39pts (+87.6%)
- shorter than 13/2 SP : 6/11 (54.5%) for 16.64pts (+151.3%)
- Class 4 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.35pts (+162.2%)
- Derek Fox : 4/6 (66.6%) for 15.59pts (+259.9%)
- and over this 2m½f trip : 2/5 (40%) for 10.7pts (+214%)
…whilst from the above… male handicappers sent off at 6/1 and shorter tilting at a prize of £4k to £8k are 3/6 (50% SR) for 13.13pts (+218.9% ROI), from which they are 2/4 at Class 4, 2/3 under Derek Fox, 2/3 over this 2m½f trip and 2 from 2 under the jockey/class/distance combo!
And finally (!) for today, it’s worth noting that in UK Class 4 handicap chases over 2m/2m½f on good to soft ground since 2014 (definitely a niche angle!), males running at the same class as an LTO hcp chase win in the previous 3 weeks are 9 from 19 (47.4% SR) for 22.5pts (+118.6% ROI)…
…giving us a 1pt win bet on Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!