Tuesday’s Pick was…
3.20 Newcastle : Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/2 (Tracked leader, led 2 out, ridden out to win by 0.75 lengths)
Wednesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Kodiline @ 4/1 BOG
…in a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 7f on polytrack worth £5531 to the winner…
OK, big day today as I attempt to celebrate my 50th birthday with an SotD-record equalling (so I’m informed) sixth winner on the bounce via a 5 yr old gelding with two wins from his last five outings including a course and distance success here 11 days ago when ridden by today’s jockey Katherine Begley (Glenister) for the first time.
Kathy (excuse the familiarity) is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 15.8pts (+175.6% ROI) on trainer David Evans’ runners in the last four weeks with another 3 of those runners making the frame, including 3 winners from 7 (42.9%) for 17.8pts (+254.3%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter from which the partnership is 2 from 4 (50%) for 12.73pts (+318.1%) over this 7f trip.
Meanwhile (and from a larger dataset), David Evans’ runners sent off at odds of 10/1 and shorter in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield are 23 from 117 (19.7% SR) for 34.5pts (+29.5% ROI) and with today’s runner/contest firmly in mind, those 117 runners are…
- 18/88 (20.5%) for 41.6pts (+47.2%) as 3-6 yr olds
- 18/73 (24.7%) for 47.1pts (+64.5%) off a mark (OR) of 56-80
- 13/61 (21.3%) for 43.6pts (+71.5%) over 7-10 furlongs
- 16/60 (26.7%) for 58pts (+96.7%) 11-25 days after their last run
- 15/56 (26.8%) for 48.7pts (+87%) in fields of 8-10 runners
- 10/31 (32.3%) for 40.7pts (+131.4%) in January
- and 5/22 (22.7%) for 14.6pts (+66.4%) over this 7f C&D
And if you wanted a composite from the above, you could try…3-6 yr olds off marks of 56-80 over 7-10f running 6-25 dslr for 9 winners from 19 (47.4% SR) and 65.6pts (+345.4% ROI) profit which include’s Kodiline‘s win LTO and also…
- with 8-13 runners : 9/15 (60%) for 69.6pts (+464.1%)
- in January : 6/11 (54.6%) for 39.9pts (+362.3%)
- 8-13 runners in Jan : 6/8 (75%) for 42.9pts (+535.6%)
- over 7f : 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.7pts (+309.7%)
- 8-13 runners over 7f : 3/6 (50%) for 22.7pts (+378%)
- over 7f in Jan : 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.3pts (+476.5%)
- and 8-13 runners over 7f in Jan : also 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.3pts (+476.5%)
…giving us a 1pt win bet on Kodiline @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Ladbrokes at 4.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!