Stat of the Day, 16th January 2019

Tuesday’s Pick was…

3.20 Newcastle : Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/2 (Tracked leader, led 2 out, ridden out to win by 0.75 lengths)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

2.25 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Kodiline @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 7f on polytrack worth £5531 to the winner…


OK, big day today as I attempt to celebrate my 50th birthday with an SotD-record equalling (so I’m informed) sixth winner on the bounce via a 5 yr old gelding with two wins from his last five outings including a course and distance success here 11 days ago when ridden by today’s jockey Katherine Begley (Glenister) for the first time.

Kathy (excuse the familiarity) is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 15.8pts (+175.6% ROI) on trainer David Evans’ runners in the last four weeks with another 3 of those runners making the frame, including 3 winners from 7 (42.9%) for 17.8pts (+254.3%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter from which the partnership is 2 from 4 (50%) for 12.73pts (+318.1%) over this 7f trip.

Meanwhile (and from a larger dataset), David Evans’ runners sent off at odds of 10/1 and shorter in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield are 23 from 117 (19.7% SR) for 34.5pts (+29.5% ROI) and with today’s runner/contest firmly in mind, those 117 runners are…

  • 18/88 (20.5%) for 41.6pts (+47.2%) as 3-6 yr olds
  • 18/73 (24.7%) for 47.1pts (+64.5%) off a mark (OR) of 56-80
  • 13/61 (21.3%) for 43.6pts (+71.5%) over 7-10 furlongs
  • 16/60 (26.7%) for 58pts (+96.7%) 11-25 days after their last run
  • 15/56 (26.8%) for 48.7pts (+87%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 40.7pts (+131.4%) in January
  • and 5/22 (22.7%) for 14.6pts (+66.4%) over this 7f C&D

And if you wanted a composite from the above, you could try…3-6 yr olds off marks of 56-80 over 7-10f running 6-25 dslr for 9 winners from 19 (47.4% SR) and 65.6pts (+345.4% ROI) profit which include’s Kodiline‘s win LTO and also…

  • with 8-13 runners : 9/15 (60%) for 69.6pts (+464.1%)
  • in January : 6/11 (54.6%) for 39.9pts (+362.3%)
  • 8-13 runners in Jan : 6/8 (75%) for 42.9pts (+535.6%)
  • over 7f : 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.7pts (+309.7%)
  • 8-13 runners over 7f : 3/6 (50%) for 22.7pts (+378%)
  • over 7f in Jan : 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.3pts (+476.5%)
  • and 8-13 runners over 7f in Jan : also 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.3pts (+476.5%)

…giving us a 1pt win bet on Kodiline @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Ladbrokes at 4.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.25 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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