Stat of the Day, 17th January 2019

Wednesday’s Pick was…

2.25 Lingfield :Kodiline @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Dwelt in rear, pushed along over 2f out, some headway entering final furlong, switched right inside final furlong, never nearer)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

2.05 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ontopoftheworld @ 3/1 BOG

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…in a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3½f on Good To Soft worth £7343 to the winner…

Why?

This 10 yr old appears all over my stats sheets for today’s racing ticking lots of boxes as well as looking like having a great chance of yet another good run, so rather than bore you with all the data I’ve got in front of me, I’m going to briefly tell you a little about why I’m backing it broken down into horse/trainer/sire components.

The horse…

…is a 10 yr old gelding with 9 top 3 finishes from 11 starts (all in hcp chases, all wearing cheekpieces) since moving to Peter Bowen’s yard, winning five times including a 17 length win in a 2-horse race LTO 10 days ago. Of that 5 from 11 record since switching homes, he is…

  • 5/9 after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 5/9 at odds of 6/1 or shorter
  • 5/9 for prizes of less than £9k
  • 2/6 at Class 3
  • and 2/3 under today’s jockey Sean Bowen

Sean himself has a good record here at this track, but it is largely intertwined with the record of…

…today’s trainer…

Peter Bowen, whose handicap chasers sent off at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 here at Market Rasen are 16 from 43 (37.2% SR) for 41.4pts (+96.3% ROI) since 2010, from which Class 3 runners are 6/17 (35.3%) for 11.94pts (+70.3%)

And more generally, Peter’s handicap chasers who won LTO are 27 from 91 (29.7% SR) for 51.5pts (+56.6% ROI) since the start of 2015, with those returning from a rest of 5 weeks or less winning 26 of 81 (32.1%) for 58.7pts (+72.4%)

…and finally, the sire…

…is Desert King, whose offspring have won 19 of 95 (20% SR) handicap chases since the start of 2016, generating 54.2pts profit at an ROI of 57%, of which those racing 1 to 8 weeks after their run are 16/76 (21%) for 48.6pts (+63.9%), whilst Class 3 runners are 3/9 (33.3%) for 14.23pts (+158.1%)

…all pointing to a 1pt win bet on Ontopoftheworld @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Betfair, Bet365 and Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.05 Market Rasen

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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