Stat of the Day, 19th January 2019

Friday’s Pick was…

1.45 Musselbrugh: Elmono @ 11/4 BOG NR (Meeting abandoned, due to frost)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

6.45 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Power Of Life @ 7/1 BOG

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…in a 12-runner, Class 6, handicap over 1f on standard going

Why?

Matt here in place of Chris for one day only, and I’m taking a chance at a price on an interesting horse. Actually, the trainer is more interesting than the horse inasmuch as Michael Bell has ‘previous’ whereas Power Of Life has thus far looked, and indeed may turn out to be, thoroughly moderate!

But then, this is a race for moderate horses and the pick is stepping into handicap company for the first time. Therein lies the crux:

Michael Bell has a record with handicap debutants in the last two years of 12 winners from 65 runners (26, 40%, placed, +8.25). In other words, there is a solid chance that his runner here will step forward if he’s ever going to be capable of doing that.

Bell at Wolverhampton is another rock solid angle:

One year course form is 5/18 (27.78%, +56.75)
Five year course form is 19/108 (17.59%, +61.36)

Putting the two together:

Michael Bell handicap debutants at Wolverhampton in the last five years: 3/11 (27.27%, +8.38)

The trainer is in good form, having recorded a win and a second from his last three runners. So, in what is a complete guess up where those with form look extremely ordinary, it’s worth taking the chance of a total blowout on a horse like Power Of Life, whose trainer is adept at this particular trick. He’s certainly found the right slot for the horse if he has any ability whatsoever. So…

…it’s a 1pt win bet on Power Of Life @ 7/1 BOG as was offered by Hills, Fred, Tote, Betfair and Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Friday evening. bet365 were 15/2 at that time, if you can get that. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. A quick headsup about the next couple of picks : I’m away for the weekend from tomorrow afternoon, so Matt’s in the hotseat for Saturday’s pick and I’ll be doing Monday’s pick when I get home, but it won’t appear until after midnight Sunday at the earliest! Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

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