Stat of the Day, 21st January 2019

Saturday’s Pick was…

6.45 Wolverhampton : Power Of Life @ 7/1 BOG 11th at 9/2 (Led until 8f out, settled tracking leaders over 6f out, weakening when hung left over 1f out )

Monday’s pick runs in the…

2.05 Warwick:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Ange Des Malberaux @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m1½f on Good To Soft ground worth £5198 to the winner

Why?

Here we have a 9 yr old gelding in excellent form, having won four of his last six starts (inc 3 wins from his last 4 over fences) culminating in him landing the Class 3 Lincolnshire National by 5 lengths on Boxing Day at Market Rasen. A drop in both trip and class await him today and I expect another bold show, especially considering…

…as his trainer Dan Skelton has got his horses going really well right now, winning 15 of 74 (20.3% SR) for 48pts (+64.8% ROI) over the last 30 days with that record improving to 7/28 (25%) for 5.9pts (+21%) in the last fortnight, whilst since the start of 2015, the chasers he has sent here to Warwick have won 15 of 42 (35.7% SR) for profits of 7.09pts (+17.3% ROI) backed blindly.

Now, that’s not the biggest sample size I’ve ever used, but Warwick isn’t the busiest of tracks from a chasing perspective and of interest today from those runners…

  • jockey Harry Skelton is 14/32 (43.8%) for 16.09pts (+50.3%)
  • handicappers are 10/29 (34.5%) for 7.66pts (+26.4%)
  • those sent off at 4/1 or shorter are 15/26 (57.7%) for 23.09pts (+92.3%)
  • those racing after less than a month’s rest are 11/24 (45.8%) for 11.58pts (+48.2%)
  • Class 4 : 8/15 (53.3%) for 9.38pts (+67%)
  • class droppers are 5/11 (45.5%) for 6.13pts (+55.7%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 7/10 (70%) for 14.5pts (+145%)

…whilst from the above…Harry Skelton on sub-9/2 handicappers with a run in the previous month = 9/13 (69.2% SR) for 18.28pts (+140.6% ROI), from which…

  • Class 4 = 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.37pts (+133.8%)
  • Good to Soft = 3/3 (100%) for 7.85pts (+261.6%)
  • Class droppers : 2/2 (100%) for 5.05pts (+252.5%)

…giving us a 1pt win bet on Ange Des Malberaux @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by half a dozen firms at 2.00am on Monday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 2.05 Warwick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. A quick headsup about the next couple of picks : I’m away for the weekend from tomorrow afternoon, so Matt’s in the hotseat for Saturday’s pick and I’ll be doing Monday’s pick when I get home, but it won’t appear until after midnight Sunday at the earliest! Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

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