Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2019

Tuesday’s Pick was…

5.15 Newcastle : Straight Right @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, chased winner inside final furlong, never able to challenge)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

1.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Chica de la Noche @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Fillies Handicap over 7f on Polytrack worth £3752 to the winner

Why?

This 5 yr old mare is consistent if nothing else, finishing in the first three home in each of her last seven outings. She’s a former course and distance winner (2 starts and 24 days ago) from the back end of last year when ridden by today’s in-form (6/25 over the last 7 days) jockey Adam Kirby for the very first and only (so far) time.

Booking Adam again is a positive as he rides this track well, particularly over the shorter trips and since 2008 has churned out the winners on a regular basis : 103 to be precise from 541 rides (19% SR) over trips of 6 to 8 furlongs generating level stakes profits of 130.5pts (+24.1% ROI) for anyone backing him blindly over those distances.

Of those 541 rides, he’s 70/376 (18.6%) for 139.1pts (+37%) at the lower end (Class 5/6) of the quality scale, so he clearly gets the fractions right at this level, hence fingers crossed for another winner!

Sticking with Mr Kirby as our focus today, his partnership with trainer Simon Dow has been successful over the last couple of years, albeit from a small number of rides, but over the last 2 years, they are 7 from 19 together with that 36.8% strike rate generating 11pts profit at a healthy ROI of 57.7% and whilst there aren’t a vast number of contests to look at there, they do throw some interesting angles up for today, as…

  • on the A/W : 6/17 (35.3%) for 8.3pts (+48.6%)
  • on Polytrack : 6/17 (35.3%) for 8.3pts (+48.6%)
  • in handicaps : 6/14 (42.9%) for 14.4pts (+102.7%)
  • in December/January : 6/13 (46.2%) for 12.3pts (+94.3%)
  • on the A/W here at Lingfield : 5/12 (41.7%) for 5.9pts (+49.1%)
  • at odds shorter than 4/1 : 6/9 (66.6%) for 13.6pts (+151.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/6 (50%) for 11pts (+183.3%)
  • over 7f : 3/6 (50%) for 4pts (+66.6%)
  • and in January : 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.3pts (+105%)

…whilst in Lingfield A/W handicaps at odds shorter than 4/1 in December/January, the pair are 4/6 (66.6% SR) for 10.3pts (+171.9% ROI), which includes that course and distance win by Chica de la Noche 24 days ago over course and distance…

…giving us a 1pt win bet on Chica de la Noche @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 4.45pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.30 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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